10% — Trump out as President before 2027
Polymarket 10% · 1 contracts · $31K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 04:44:40 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the current market expectation that President Trump will leave office before January 2027, representing roughly a 1-in-7 chance. At 14%, the market is pricing in scenarios where Trump either resigns, is removed through impeachment and conviction, or becomes unable to serve before the end of his current term. The probability is primarily driven by two factors: Trump's current age and health status, and the political environment regarding potential legal or constitutional challenges to his presidency. The single largest uncertainty ahead involves any significant health events or major developments in ongoing legal matters that could materially change the baseline risk assessment. Election outcomes and political dynamics over the next 18 months will likely be the primary drivers of how this probability evolves from its current level.

Key factors:
- Trump is currently 79 years old; actuarial data and health status changes would be concrete inputs affecting removal-by-death probabilities
- Senate composition and political dynamics determine the theoretical viability of impeachment and conviction, which would require supermajority support among 100 senators
- Any formal impeachment proceedings or criminal conviction outcomes would represent clear catalysts that markets would incorporate immediately
- The current 14% probability implicitly prices in legal, health, and political removal scenarios combined—parsing these separately would require deeper market segmentation
- Historical precedent shows U.S. presidents rarely leave office before completing their term absent death or resignation under acute pressure

Contracts:
- Trump out as President before 2027? — 10¢ Polymarket $31K (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T04:20:09.442Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "10% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trump-out-as-president
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Trump%20out%20as%20President%20before%202027
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev