14% — Trump out as President by June 30 Kalshi 6% · Polymarket 16% · 18 contracts · $173K volume · high confidence Updated 2026-07-24 02:05:37 UTC Cross-venue gap: 10pp (Polymarket higher) Why this matters: This probability reflects the likelihood that Donald Trump leaves the presidency before June 30, 2026—approximately 18 days from today. The 14% aggregate estimate sits between Kalshi's 6% and Polymarket's 16%, indicating disagreement about near-term removal scenarios. The probability is primarily driven by two considerations: the constitutional mechanisms for presidential removal (impeachment, disability under the 25th Amendment, or resignation) and the current political environment's willingness to invoke them. With less than three weeks remaining, any resolution would likely stem from an unexpected health event, accelerated legal proceedings directly incapacitating the office, or an unanticipated political rupture. The cross-venue 10-percentage-point gap suggests different risk assessments of these low-probability events occurring within this specific timeframe. Key factors: - No active impeachment proceedings are publicly documented as of June 2026, making constitutional removal through this channel highly unlikely within 18 days - The 25th Amendment disability provision requires cabinet consensus and Congressional majority confirmation, creating a high threshold unlikely to materialize without a major health event or public disclosure - Kalshi and Polymarket pricing diverges by 10 percentage points, suggesting uncertainty about model calibration rather than clarity on underlying events - Resignation would represent a voluntary act with no publicly reported indicators in recent statements or reporting - The resolution deadline is imminent (June 30), meaning any relevant catalyst must occur or become actionable within weeks rather than months Contracts: - Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Donald Trump Jr. — 3¢ Polymarket $40K (weight 23%) - Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? — 12¢ Polymarket $24K (weight 14%) - Trump out as President before 2027? — 14¢ Polymarket $22K (weight 13%) - Donald Trump out before 2027?: Before 2027 — 11¢ Kalshi $18K (weight 10%) - Presidential Election Winner 2028: Donald Trump — 3¢ Polymarket $18K (weight 10%) - Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?: June 30 — 18¢ Polymarket $15K (weight 8%) - Netanyahu out by...?: June 30 — 5¢ Polymarket $12K (weight 7%) - Kash Patel out by...?: June 30 — 31¢ Polymarket $11K (weight 6%) - ... and 10 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "14% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trump-out-as-president-june-30 Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Trump%20out%20as%20President%20by%20June%2030 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev