14% — Trump out as President by June 30
Kalshi 6% · Polymarket 16% · 18 contracts · $173K volume · high confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 03:20:44 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 10pp (Polymarket higher)

Contracts:
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Donald Trump Jr. — 3¢ Polymarket $40K (weight 23%)
- Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? — 12¢ Polymarket $24K (weight 14%)
- Trump out as President before 2027? — 14¢ Polymarket $22K (weight 13%)
- Donald Trump out before 2027?: Before 2027 — 11¢ Kalshi $18K (weight 10%)
- Presidential Election Winner 2028: Donald Trump — 3¢ Polymarket $18K (weight 10%)
- Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?: June 30 — 18¢ Polymarket $15K (weight 8%)
- Netanyahu out by...?: June 30 — 5¢ Polymarket $12K (weight 7%)
- Kash Patel out by...?: June 30 — 31¢ Polymarket $11K (weight 6%)
- ... and 10 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-03T18:35:57.907Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "14% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trump-out-as-president-june-30
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Trump%20out%20as%20President%20by%20June%2030
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev