96% — Will Trump publicly insult someone on... Leader: May 25 at 96% · Polymarket 96% · 7 contracts · $9K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-05-25 00:11:53 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes. Contracts: - Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?: May 25 — 96¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 21%) - Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?: May 27 — 94¢ Polymarket $6K (weight 66%) - Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?: May 30 — 92¢ Polymarket $563 (weight 6%) - Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?: May 26 — 92¢ Polymarket $336 (weight 4%) - Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?: May 29 — 92¢ Polymarket $179 (weight 2%) - Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?: May 28 — 92¢ Polymarket $76 (weight 1%) - Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?: May 31 — 92¢ Polymarket $17 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-05-24T23:20:09.639Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "96% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trump-publicly-insult-someone Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Trump%20publicly%20insult%20someone%20on... Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev