28% — Trump renames ICE to NICE by... Leader: December 31 at 28% · Polymarket 28% · 2 contracts · $506 volume · low confidence Updated 2026-05-28 19:17:50 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes. Why this matters: This prediction asks whether President Trump will rename Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) to NICE by December 31, 2026. The 17% probability reflects moderate skepticism about a formal agency rebranding occurring within seven months. Market pricing suggests traders view this as unlikely but plausible, with most uncertainty concentrated in the latter half of 2026 rather than the immediate near-term (only 3% by June 30). The main factors shaping this probability are the political feasibility of such a rebranding (which requires executive action and potential congressional coordination), Trump's stated positions on immigration enforcement policy, and whether such a name change aligns with his administration's broader priorities. The lack of recent public statements committing to this specific rebranding keeps the probability modest. Resolution hinges on whether an official announcement or executive order is signed before year-end 2026. Key factors: - Trump has not publicly proposed renaming ICE to NICE as of May 2026, limiting expectation that this is an imminent priority - A formal agency rebranding requires executive action and possible legislative changes, creating procedural barriers beyond simple announcement - The June 30 contract trades at only 3%, suggesting minimal market expectation of action in the immediate term versus later in the year - Trading volume on the December 31 contract is currently zero, indicating low active interest and potentially wide bid-ask spreads - Whether Trump's immigration policy platform includes aesthetic rebranding versus substantive enforcement changes remains a key variable affecting outcome probability Contracts: - Trump renames ICE to NICE by...?: December 31 — 28¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%) - Trump renames ICE to NICE by...?: June 30 — 4¢ Polymarket $506 (weight 100%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-05-28T18:20:08.968Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "28% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trump-renames-ice-to-nice Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Trump%20renames%20ICE%20to%20NICE%20by... Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev