96% — Will Trump restart Project Freedom by...
Polymarket 96% · 1 contracts · $1.1M volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-13 15:51:26 UTC

Why this matters:
This prediction assesses the likelihood that former President Trump will restart Project Freedom, a proposed initiative related to government reform and restructuring. At 96% probability, the market reflects strong expectations this will occur. The high probability is likely driven by Trump's 2024 campaign platform, which heavily emphasized government efficiency reforms, and his stated intention to implement similar policies if returned to office. Key factors that could shift this probability include Trump's actual policy priorities in the near term, any formal announcements or executive actions regarding government restructuring, and statements from Trump's advisors about implementation timelines. The resolution will primarily depend on whether Trump takes concrete steps—such as executive orders, budget proposals, or structural reorganizations—that align with Project Freedom's stated goals. Any significant pivot away from these priorities or competing policy demands could reduce the probability.

Key factors:
- Trump's official statements or announcements explicitly naming or endorsing Project Freedom as a priority
- Issuance of executive orders or policy directives directly related to government restructuring components
- Timeline for implementation—whether Trump allocates resources and personnel to such an initiative within his first year
- Competing policy priorities that could delay or supersede government reform efforts
- Congressional or legal obstacles that might prevent or materially alter the scope of any such program

Contracts:
- Will Trump restart Project Freedom by...?: June 30 — 96¢ Polymarket $1.1M (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-11T04:20:13.205Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "96% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trump-restart-project-freedom
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Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev