28% — Will Trump sign an executive order on... Leader: May 24 at 28% · Polymarket 28% · 6 contracts · $212 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-05-28 20:40:03 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes. Why this matters: This market estimates a 50% probability that Trump will sign an executive order by May 27, 2026, based on aggregated trading across 8 contracts on Polymarket. The leading contract suggests markets see this as a genuine toss-up rather than a likely or unlikely event. The current probability reflects uncertainty about timing: traders have distributed probabilities across multiple dates (May 24 through May 31), with May 28-29 also showing 43% prices, indicating no consensus on when such an order might occur. The market's assessment appears to hinge on whether Trump announces or executes such an order within the narrow May 24-31 window. Key uncertainty factors include Trump's current policy priorities, the formal definition of 'signing' (announcement vs. ceremonial signing), and whether any specific executive order is already in preparation. Resolution depends entirely on whether a signed order matching the market's definition appears by May 27 at 11:59 PM. Key factors: - The 50% probability for May 27 reflects maximum uncertainty; traders show comparable confidence in May 28-29 outcomes (both at 43¢), suggesting the timing window itself is contested rather than the likelihood of an order occurring - Trading volume concentrates on May 31 ($61 24h volume) and May 24 ($52 24h volume), indicating recent activity focused on near-term and recently-passed dates rather than the May 27 leader - Eight bound contracts across different dates prevent any single outcome from commanding dominant probability, suggesting scattered trader conviction and information asymmetry about executive order timing - The definition scope is critical but unclear: what counts as 'signing' and what policy area qualifies materially affects how traders price each date - No evident catalyst or scheduled Trump event on May 27 is referenced in available contract data, leaving resolution dependent on unexpected announcements Contracts: - Will Trump sign an executive order on...?: May 24 — 28¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%) - Will Trump sign an executive order on...?: May 29 — 18¢ Polymarket $8 (weight 4%) - Will Trump sign an executive order on...?: May 30 — 18¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%) - Will Trump sign an executive order on...?: May 31 — 14¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%) - Will Trump sign an executive order on...?: May 28 — 10¢ Polymarket $204 (weight 96%) - Will Trump sign an executive order on...?: May 21 — 8¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:07.309Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "28% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trump-sign-executive-order Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Trump%20sign%20an%20executive%20order%20on... Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev