21% — Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by... Leader: December 31 at 21% · Polymarket 21% · 2 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence Updated 2026-09-20 17:03:20 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes. Why this matters: This market estimates an 18% probability that Trump will attempt to remove Jerome Powell from the Federal Reserve Board before year-end 2026. Powell is a sitting Fed chair with a 14-year term running until 2026, and the president cannot unilaterally fire him without cause under existing law, though Trump has expressed public frustration with Fed decisions historically. The probability reflects uncertainty about whether Trump would pursue legislative changes, invoke legal arguments for removal, or make a formal attempt despite legal barriers. Key drivers include Trump's rhetoric toward Powell, Fed monetary policy decisions, inflation dynamics, and whether Congress would support any removal effort. The near-term contract (June 30) trades at 5%, suggesting most expected action, if any, would occur in the latter half of 2026. Actual removal would require either Fed policy shifts that satisfy Trump, legislative changes, or a legal challenge Trump believes viable. Key factors: - Trump's public statements about Powell and the Fed since returning to office—explicit threat or sustained pressure would increase probability - Federal Reserve policy decisions and inflation trajectory—looser policy or faster inflation control could reduce Trump's removal incentive - Congressional Republican support for removal legislation—whether GOP leadership introduces or backs removal bills - Legal precedent and DOJ guidance on presidential removal authority over Fed governors—any formal Trump administration legal arguments claiming removal power - Specific dates of major Fed policy announcements or congressional hearings where Trump or allies could escalate removal rhetoric Contracts: - Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by...?: December 31 — 21¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 50%) - Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by...?: June 30 — 4¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 50%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "21% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trump-try-to-fire-powell-as-fed-board-member Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Trump%20try%20to%20fire%20Powell%20as%20Fed%20Board%20Member%20by... Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev