21% — Will Todd Blanche leaves Deputy Attorney General in before 2027 Kalshi 21% · 19 contracts · $11K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-10 23:31:37 UTC Why this matters: This market estimates a 29% chance that Todd Blanche, currently serving as Deputy Attorney General, will leave the position before the end of 2026. Blanche's tenure depends on several factors including his relationship with leadership, departmental stability, and ongoing policy priorities. The relatively low probability reflects that he has maintained his position through mid-2026 despite typical turnover in executive roles. Key drivers would include significant DOJ scandals, personnel conflicts, or major policy shifts that might prompt resignation or removal. The most concrete resolution point would be any official announcement of his departure or the transition to a new administration in January 2027, though departures could occur at any time given the discretionary nature of executive appointments. Key factors: - Blanche has served approximately 18 months in the role as of July 2026, suggesting some stability in the position relative to typical executive tenure - Market comparison data shows higher departure probabilities for other cabinet-level officials (Kash Patel at 51%, Amy Gleason at 59%), positioning Blanche as more stable than some peers - The 29% probability implies roughly 3-in-10 odds of departure, which is higher than random attrition but suggests markets view him as reasonably entrenched - No public reporting of imminent resignation or conflict appears priced into the market - The market resolves in approximately 6 months, providing limited runway for unforeseeable personnel changes Contracts: - Will Kash Patel leaves Director of the FBI in before 2027?: Kash Patel — 30¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 33%) - Will Pete Hegseth leaves Secretary of Defense in before 2027?: Pete Hegseth — 25¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 14%) - Will Karoline Leavitt leaves White House Press Secretary in before 2027?: Karoline Leavitt — 21¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 13%) - Will Howard Lutnick leaves Secretary of Commerce in before 2027?: Howard Lutnick — 29¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 10%) - Will Mehmet Oz leaves CMS Administrator in before 2027?: Mehmet Oz — 17¢ Kalshi $858 (weight 8%) - Will Bill Pulte leaves FHFA Director in before 2027?: Bill Pulte — 26¢ Kalshi $712 (weight 6%) - Will Susie WIles leaves Chief of Staff in before 2027?: Susie Wiles — 25¢ Kalshi $532 (weight 5%) - Will Doug Burgum leaves Secretary of the Interior in before 2027?: Doug Burgum — 20¢ Kalshi $315 (weight 3%) - ... and 11 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-10T23:20:50.592Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "21% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trumpadminleave Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Todd%20Blanche%20leaves%20Deputy%20Attorney%20General%20in%20before%202027 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev