31% — Will Todd Blanche leaves Deputy Attorney General in before 2027 Kalshi 31% · 19 contracts · $24K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-17 19:13:51 UTC Why this matters: This market estimates a 26% probability that Todd Blanche leaves his position as Deputy Attorney General before the end of 2026. Blanche was confirmed as DAG in early 2025 under the Trump administration. The relatively low probability suggests markets view his departure as unlikely this year, though related uncertainty around other DOJ personnel—particularly FBI Director Kash Patel's potential exit—may influence perceptions of broader DOJ stability. Movement in this market would likely correlate with changes in Trump administration policy priorities, confirmation battles, or significant personnel shifts elsewhere in the department. The market reflects baseline expectation that cabinet-level positions typically see limited turnover within their first year, though political transitions can accelerate unexpected departures. Key factors: - Blanche's confirmation status and time served: He was confirmed as DAG in early 2025, suggesting typical tenure expectations before natural exit points like 2028 - Correlation with other DOJ departures: Related markets show elevated departure probabilities for Kash Patel (69% before 2027), which could indicate broader DOJ instability concerns - Historical cabinet turnover rates: DAG positions typically experience low first-year departure rates absent major scandals or policy shifts - Market activity concentration: High volume on related FBI director contracts suggests the 26% may be influenced by adjacent uncertainty rather than Blanche-specific factors - Trump administration tenure patterns: Historical precedent from previous Trump term showed varied cabinet stability, with some early exits and others serving full terms Contracts: - Will Pete Hegseth leaves Secretary of Defense in before 2027?: Pete Hegseth — 32¢ Kalshi $8K (weight 35%) - Will Kash Patel leaves Director of the FBI in before 2027?: Kash Patel — 58¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 24%) - Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leaves HHS Secretary in before 2027?: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — 44¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 13%) - Will Marco Rubio leaves Secretary of State in before 2027?: Marco Rubio — 17¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 8%) - Will Karoline Leavitt leaves White House Press Secretary in before 2027?: Karoline Leavitt — 31¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 5%) - Will Amy Gleason leaves Acting Administrator of the US DOGE Service in before 2027?: Amy Gleason — 43¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 4%) - Will Howard Lutnick leaves Secretary of Commerce in before 2027?: Howard Lutnick — 41¢ Kalshi $837 (weight 3%) - Will Susie WIles leaves Chief of Staff in before 2027?: Susie Wiles — 36¢ Kalshi $782 (weight 3%) - ... and 11 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-17T18:20:19.633Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "31% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trumpadminleave Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Todd%20Blanche%20leaves%20Deputy%20Attorney%20General%20in%20before%202027 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev