40% — Will Todd Blanche leaves Deputy Attorney General in before 2027
Kalshi 35% · 20 contracts · $22K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-03 17:27:45 UTC

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 26% probability that Todd Blanche leaves his position as Deputy Attorney General before the end of 2026. Blanche was confirmed as DAG in early 2025 under the Trump administration. The relatively low probability suggests markets view his departure as unlikely this year, though related uncertainty around other DOJ personnel—particularly FBI Director Kash Patel's potential exit—may influence perceptions of broader DOJ stability. Movement in this market would likely correlate with changes in Trump administration policy priorities, confirmation battles, or significant personnel shifts elsewhere in the department. The market reflects baseline expectation that cabinet-level positions typically see limited turnover within their first year, though political transitions can accelerate unexpected departures.

Key factors:
- Blanche's confirmation status and time served: He was confirmed as DAG in early 2025, suggesting typical tenure expectations before natural exit points like 2028
- Correlation with other DOJ departures: Related markets show elevated departure probabilities for Kash Patel (69% before 2027), which could indicate broader DOJ instability concerns
- Historical cabinet turnover rates: DAG positions typically experience low first-year departure rates absent major scandals or policy shifts
- Market activity concentration: High volume on related FBI director contracts suggests the 26% may be influenced by adjacent uncertainty rather than Blanche-specific factors
- Trump administration tenure patterns: Historical precedent from previous Trump term showed varied cabinet stability, with some early exits and others serving full terms

Contracts:
- Will Kash Patel leaves Director of the FBI in before 2027?: Kash Patel — 69¢ Kalshi $10K (weight 9%)
- Will Karoline Leavitt leaves White House Press Secretary in before 2027?: Karoline Leavitt — 40¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 8%)
- Will Pete Hegseth leaves Secretary of Defense in before 2027?: Pete Hegseth — 42¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 8%)
- Will Tulsi Gabbard leaves Director of National Intelligence in before 2027?: Tulsi Gabbard — 59¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 8%)
- Will Lee Zeldin leaves EPA Administrator in before 2027?: Lee Zeldin — 49¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 7%)
- Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leaves HHS Secretary in before 2027?: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. — 33¢ Kalshi $884 (weight 7%)
- Will Howard Lutnick leaves Secretary of Commerce in before 2027?: Howard Lutnick — 49¢ Kalshi $767 (weight 7%)
- Will Mehmet Oz leaves CMS Administrator in before 2027?: Mehmet Oz — 20¢ Kalshi $219 (weight 5%)
- ... and 12 more

Cite as: "40% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trumpadminleave
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Todd%20Blanche%20leaves%20Deputy%20Attorney%20General%20in%20before%202027
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev