53% — How many Attorneys General will Trump have
Leader: 2 at 53% · Kalshi 53% · 2 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-09-21 16:09:09 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability estimates whether Trump will have appointed exactly two Attorneys General during his tenure, currently priced at 53% likelihood. The market is weighing whether Trump's current or next Attorney General appointment will remain in place or whether additional personnel changes will occur. Key factors include the stability of the current AG, Trump's historical appointment patterns, potential scandals or resignations, and Senate confirmation dynamics. The resolution will depend on counting the total number of distinct individuals serving as Attorney General under Trump by the end of his administration, making any future resignation, firing, or planned replacement a critical catalyst that could shift probabilities significantly.

Key factors:
- Current Attorney General's tenure status and signals about planned departure or continuation
- Trump's appointment history with cabinet positions, particularly turnover rates in key roles like Attorney General
- Pending Senate confirmations or nominations that would indicate additional AG appointments
- Investigations, scandals, or political pressures that could trigger unexpected resignations or terminations
- End date of Trump's current term or administration as the resolution deadline

Contracts:
- How many Attorneys General will Trump have?: 2 — 53¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 50%)
- How many Attorneys General will Trump have?: 3 — 21¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 50%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-21T15:20:51.980Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "53% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trumpagcount
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=How%20many%20Attorneys%20General%20will%20Trump%20have
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev