48% — How many Attorneys General will Trump have
Leader: 2 at 48% · Kalshi 48% · 3 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-24 02:00:05 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market confidence that Trump will have served exactly 3 distinct Attorneys General by a specified date in 2026. The current 37% reflects a relatively uncertain outcome, with a 29% probability for an alternative count. The outcome depends primarily on whether the current AG remains in post or faces replacement due to resignation, firing, or internal administration changes. The key uncertainty centers on personnel stability within the administration and whether any major legal or political events trigger an AG transition. The resolution date and exact definitions of "distinct" AGs in the contract terms will directly determine the outcome, making precise timing of any potential departure critical to the final count.

Key factors:
- Current AG tenure length and stated administration plans regarding the position
- Whether resignation, forced departure, or scheduled departure occurs before contract resolution date
- Number of AGs already serving under Trump since January 2025 and historical appointment patterns
- Contract resolution date specificity and definition of what constitutes a distinct AG for counting purposes
- Any announced leadership changes or public statements from Trump regarding AG continuity or transition plans

Contracts:
- How many Attorneys General will Trump have?: 2 — 48¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)
- How many Attorneys General will Trump have?: 3 — 22¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)
- How many Attorneys General will Trump have?: 4 — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-24T01:20:52.221Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "48% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trumpagcount
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=How%20many%20Attorneys%20General%20will%20Trump%20have
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev