70% — Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 35% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub Leader: Below 38% at 70% · Kalshi 70% · 6 contracts · $5K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 03:10:17 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes. Why this matters: Markets are currently pricing an 83% likelihood that Trump's approval rating will fall below 38% at some point between December 2025 and December 2026, based on VoteHub polling data. This high probability reflects recent approval trends and assumes continued political volatility over the next year. The current level is driven by recent polling showing approval in the mid-to-high 30s range, with markets pricing in the possibility of further decline given ongoing policy debates and economic conditions. The key uncertainty is whether approval will stabilize above 38% or drift lower. Resolution depends on VoteHub's tracking data through end-of-year 2026, with major economic reports, legislative outcomes, and political events throughout 2026 serving as primary catalysts that could shift approval meaningfully in either direction. Key factors: - VoteHub's current Trump approval reading and recent polling trend direction—whether recent weeks show stability or continued movement below 38% - Economic data releases and GDP growth rates throughout 2026, which historically correlate strongly with presidential approval ratings - Major legislative outcomes or executive actions in the first half of 2026 that could shift public opinion measurably - The tightness of the 35%, 33%, and 38% outcome bands on Kalshi suggests markets see approval clustering in the mid-30s range rather than a clear directional consensus - The 20¢ price on 'approval above 40%' for May 2026 indicates markets assign only 20% probability to approval rebounding above that level within weeks Contracts: - Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 38% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?: Below 38% — 70¢ Kalshi $169 (weight 3%) - Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 37% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?: Below 37% — 48¢ Kalshi $727 (weight 13%) - Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 36% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?: Below 36% — 34¢ Kalshi $382 (weight 7%) - Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 35% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?: Below 35% — 25¢ Kalshi $746 (weight 14%) - Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 34% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?: Below 34% — 18¢ Kalshi $756 (weight 14%) - Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be below 33% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?: Below 33% — 14¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 49%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T02:20:51.144Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "70% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trumpapprovalbelow Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Donald%20Trump's%20approval%20rating%20on%20approval%20rating%20be%20below%2035%25%20during%20Dec%202025%20to%20Dec%202026%20according%20to%20VoteHub Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev