21% — Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 45% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub Leader: Above 43% at 21% · Kalshi 21% · 8 contracts · $359 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-19 11:00:06 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes. Why this matters: This market estimates a 24% chance that Donald Trump's approval rating will exceed 45% at some point between December 2025 and December 2026, based on VoteHub data. The low probability reflects market expectations that his approval will remain constrained during this period. Related contracts show traders assign higher odds (43-83%) to his approval staying below 35-38%, suggesting consensus centers on a lower approval range. The gap between this 45% threshold and the range below 38% indicates meaningful uncertainty about whether his approval could recover to stronger levels. Key drivers include economic conditions, major legislative outcomes, and external events during the 12-month window. Monthly approval releases from VoteHub will continuously update expectations as actual ratings emerge, particularly if near-term data shows movement toward or away from the 45% level. Key factors: - The current leader contract (24¢) reflects belief approval stays below 45% for the entire Dec 2025-Dec 2026 period, while the 38% threshold contract (83¢) implies 83% odds approval never exceeds 38% - Economic data releases, quarterly GDP reports, and employment figures during 2026 will directly influence approval trends and retest this threshold - VoteHub's monthly approval ratings provide objective, measurable data points that will resolve outcome uncertainty without interpretation - The 20¢ price on a May 2026 above-40% outcome suggests near-term approval is expected to remain constrained below historical presidential averages - A gap exists between moderate confidence in sub-38% outcomes versus lower confidence in sub-33% outcomes (27¢), indicating some tail risk to higher approval readings Contracts: - Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 43% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?: Above 43% — 21¢ Kalshi $286 (weight 80%) - Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 44% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?: Above 44% — 18¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 45% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?: Above 45% — 16¢ Kalshi $73 (weight 20%) - Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 46% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?: Above 46% — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 47% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?: Above 47% — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 48% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?: Above 48% — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 49% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?: Above 49% — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Donald Trump's approval rating on approval rating be above 50% during Dec 2025 to Dec 2026 according to VoteHub?: Above 50% — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-19T10:20:20.363Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "21% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trumpapprovalyear Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Donald%20Trump's%20approval%20rating%20on%20approval%20rating%20be%20above%2045%25%20during%20Dec%202025%20to%20Dec%202026%20according%20to%20VoteHub Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev