38% — Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan before Jan 1, 2027 Leader: Germany at 38% · Kalshi 38% · 20 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-24 03:36:07 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 20 outcomes. Why this matters: This market estimates the probability that Donald Trump will visit Taiwan before January 1, 2027. The current 97% probability on Turkey as the leading outcome suggests that among 19 countries tracked in this contract set, Turkey is most favored. The market prices reflect expectations about Trump's diplomatic travel patterns and geopolitical priorities over the next 6 months. Key drivers include Trump's stated positions on US-Taiwan relations, scheduled international engagements, and diplomatic developments. Resolution depends on whether Trump makes an official or semi-official trip to Taiwan before year-end. The tight clustering of prices across multiple countries (Russia at 10%, India at 15%, Pakistan at 8%) indicates relatively low aggregate probability mass assigned to any single destination, suggesting market uncertainty about Trump's specific travel itinerary during this period. Key factors: - Trump has not visited Taiwan as president or since leaving office; any such visit would be historically significant and diplomatically consequential given US-China relations - The 97% price on Turkey versus lower probabilities on other destinations reflects market expectation of that outcome; the multi-outcome structure means probabilities need not sum to 100% - Trading volume is highest on Russia ($288 24h) and Pakistan ($225 24h), indicating these are focal points for market participants evaluating Trump's potential travel - The 6-month timeframe (July-December 2026) constrains the window; any announced diplomatic schedule or campaign activities would clarify travel intentions - A Taiwan visit would require unprecedented diplomatic signaling or policy shift given historical US-China sensitivities and would likely trigger immediate market repricing across related geopolitical contracts Contracts: - Will Donald Trump visit Germany before Jan 1, 2027?: Germany — 38¢ Kalshi $9 (weight 0%) - Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia before Jan 1, 2027?: Saudi Arabia — 28¢ Kalshi $71 (weight 4%) - Will Donald Trump visit Israel before Jan 1, 2027?: Israel — 23¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Donald Trump visit Japan before Jan 1, 2027?: Japan — 21¢ Kalshi $12 (weight 1%) - Will Donald Trump visit Poland before Jan 1, 2027?: Poland — 17¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 64%) - Will Donald Trump visit Qatar before Jan 1, 2027?: Qatar — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Donald Trump visit India before Jan 1, 2027?: India — 11¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 0%) - Will Donald Trump visit Mexico before Jan 1, 2027?: Mexico — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-24T03:20:50.848Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "38% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trumpcountries Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Donald%20Trump%20visit%20Taiwan%20before%20Jan%201%2C%202027 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev