93% — Will Donald Trump visit Taiwan before Jan 1, 2027
Leader: France at 93% · Kalshi 93% · 19 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 07:51:07 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 19 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability represents the odds that Donald Trump will visit Taiwan before January 1, 2027. The high 93% price reflects market expectations that Trump will make this trip during his presidency, likely as part of a broader Asia-Pacific engagement strategy. Key factors driving this level include the political significance of Taiwan, ongoing US-China relations, and Trump's stated foreign policy priorities. Downward pressure would come from diplomatic complications or scheduling constraints. The main catalyst for resolution is Trump's public schedule and announcements regarding international travel, with any scheduled Asia trip significantly affecting these odds. The recent China-related contracts trading at 90% suggest traders view a Taiwan visit as likely if Trump travels to the region.

Key factors:
- Trump's stated commitment to Asia-Pacific engagement and Taiwan relations during his 2024-2025 statements
- Current geopolitical tensions between US and China, which could either accelerate or complicate a Taiwan visit
- No publicly announced Taiwan trip on Trump's official schedule as of early May 2026, suggesting this is a probabilistic expectation rather than confirmed
- Historical precedent: sitting US presidents rarely visit Taiwan directly due to diplomatic sensitivities, though this has shifted under Trump's prior administration
- The significant gap between Taiwan-specific odds (93%) and China visit odds (90%) indicates market confidence in a Taiwan stop if Trump travels to Asia

Contracts:
- Will Donald Trump visit France before Jan 1, 2027?: France — 93¢ Kalshi $968 (weight 86%)
- Will Donald Trump visit Japan before Jan 1, 2027?: Japan — 36¢ Kalshi $32 (weight 3%)
- Will Donald Trump visit Saudi Arabia before Jan 1, 2027?: Saudi Arabia — 35¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Donald Trump visit Germany before Jan 1, 2027?: Germany — 32¢ Kalshi $49 (weight 4%)
- Will Donald Trump visit Israel before Jan 1, 2027?: Israel — 31¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Donald Trump visit Canada before Jan 1, 2027?: Canada — 28¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Donald Trump visit India before Jan 1, 2027?: India — 25¢ Kalshi $25 (weight 2%)
- Will Donald Trump visit Italy before Jan 1, 2027?: Italy — 24¢ Kalshi $19 (weight 2%)
- ... and 11 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T07:20:08.045Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "93% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trumpcountries
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Donald%20Trump%20visit%20Taiwan%20before%20Jan%201%2C%202027
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev