17% — Will Donald Trump Jr. attend Trump's crypto & business conference (originally scheduled for Apr 25, 2026)
Kalshi 17% · 7 contracts · $8K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-24 01:41:56 UTC

Why this matters:
This contract measures the likelihood that Donald Trump Jr. will attend his father's cryptocurrency and business conference originally scheduled for April 25, 2026. At 28%, the market suggests it is more likely he will not attend than will. The relatively low probability may reflect uncertainty about the event's status itself—since today is June 21, 2026, the conference date has already passed without clear public confirmation of whether it occurred or was postponed. Key drivers include whether the conference was rescheduled to a future date, Trump Jr.'s other commitments, and his typical attendance patterns at family business events. The resolution will depend on documentation of his actual attendance, which could come from event coverage, social media confirmation, or official announcements from the conference organizers.

Key factors:
- The original April 25, 2026 date has passed as of June 21, 2026, suggesting the conference may have been cancelled, postponed, or already occurred without documented Trump Jr. attendance
- Public records or media coverage from the event date would provide direct evidence of attendance or non-attendance
- Trump Jr.'s known schedule conflicts or other business commitments in late April 2026 could have prevented attendance
- Official conference announcements or social media documentation would clarify whether Trump Jr. was scheduled to appear or actually attended
- Historical patterns of Trump Jr.'s attendance at family-connected business events and conferences would inform baseline expectations

Contracts:
- Who will win the next presidential election?: Donald J. Trump — 3¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 77%)
- Will Donald Trump leave office before January 20, 2029?: Before January 20, 2029 — 28¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 19%)
- Will Donald J. Trump Jr. be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?: Donald J. Trump Jr. — 4¢ Kalshi $181 (weight 2%)
- Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: Donald J. Trump Jr. — 23¢ Kalshi $100 (weight 1%)
- Will Donald J. Trump Jr. be the nominee for the Vice Presidency for the Republican party?: Donald J. Trump Jr. — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Donald Trump Jr. and Marco Rubio be the 2028 Republican Presidential ticket?: Donald Trump Jr. and Marco Rubio — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Donald Trump Jr. receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Donald Trump Jr. — 57¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-24T01:20:52.606Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "17% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trumpcryptoconf
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Donald%20Trump%20Jr.%20attend%20Trump's%20crypto%20%26%20business%20conference%20(originally%20scheduled%20for%20Apr%2025%2C%202026)
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev