18% — Will Donald Trump Jr. attend Trump's crypto & business conference (originally scheduled for Apr 25, 2026)
Kalshi 21% · Polymarket 5% · 12 contracts · $9K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 04:51:25 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 16pp (Kalshi higher)

Contracts:
- Will Donald Trump leave office before August 1, 2026?: Before August 1, 2026 — 3¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 38%)
- Will Donald J. Trump attend The 2026 FIFA World Cup Final?: Yes — 81¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 22%)
- Will Donald Trump leave office before January 20, 2029?: Before January 20, 2029 — 34¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 13%)
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Donald Trump Jr. — 3¢ Polymarket $969 (weight 11%)
- Will Donald J. Trump be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?: Donald J. Trump — 3¢ Kalshi $770 (weight 9%)
- Who will win the next presidential election?: Donald J. Trump — 3¢ Kalshi $509 (weight 6%)
- Will Donald J. Trump Jr. be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?: Donald J. Trump Jr. — 5¢ Kalshi $112 (weight 1%)
- Who will run for the Republican presidential nomination in 2028?: Donald J. Trump Jr. — 22¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 4 more

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-08T04:20:12.922Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "18% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trumpcryptoconf
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Donald%20Trump%20Jr.%20attend%20Trump's%20crypto%20%26%20business%20conference%20(originally%20scheduled%20for%20Apr%2025%2C%202026)
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev