94% — Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in May 2026 be at least 25
Leader: At least 3 at 94% · Kalshi 94% · 6 contracts · $6 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:21:05 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract estimates a 97% probability that Donald Trump will delete at least 25 Truth Social posts during May 2026. The high confidence reflects Trump's established posting pattern on the platform; related contracts show he posted 80–99 times in late April, suggesting consistent activity. The probability could shift based on whether Trump maintains his current deletion rate—a behavioral metric tied to content moderation preferences or strategic account management. Resolution depends on Truth Social's public deletion records becoming available after May concludes, typically within days of month-end. Key uncertainties include whether deletions correlate with specific events (posts attracting criticism or legal concerns) or represent routine maintenance, and whether platform access or policy changes would disrupt the baseline pattern.

Key factors:
- Trump posted 80–99 times in the week of April 26, 2026 (97¢ contract), establishing recent daily volume baseline
- Historical Truth Social deletion rate: analysts must establish what percentage of Trump's posts are typically removed post-publication
- Deletion behavior is discretionary and context-dependent; no public announcement typically precedes removal decisions
- May 31, 2026 is the hard resolution date; Truth Social must publish final deletion counts or third-party monitors must verify the tally
- Runner-up contract at 93% suggests modest disagreement on whether 25 is the precise threshold, indicating marginal uncertainty near the boundary

Contracts:
- Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in May 2026 be at least 3?: At least 3 — 94¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 17%)
- Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in May 2026 be at least 5?: At least 5 — 84¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 83%)
- Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in May 2026 be at least 10?: At least 10 — 55¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in May 2026 be at least 15?: At least 15 — 20¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in May 2026 be at least 20?: At least 20 — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the number of Trump Truths deleted in May 2026 be at least 25?: At least 25 — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

Cite as: "94% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trumpdelete
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20number%20of%20Trump%20Truths%20deleted%20in%20May%202026%20be%20at%20least%2025
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev