8% — 0
Kalshi 8% · 10 contracts · $455 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:21:44 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability estimates the likelihood that at least two Trump-endorsed candidates will lose their primary elections. As of May 2026, markets assign this outcome a 7% probability, reflecting expectations that most Trump-backed candidates will successfully win their primaries. The current level suggests high confidence in Trump-endorsed candidates' primary success, though factors like candidate quality, local political dynamics, and voter enthusiasm variations could shift this estimate. Primary elections occurring throughout 2026 will determine the final outcome. The main catalyst resolving uncertainty is the completion of all primary contests, where results will show exactly how many endorsed candidates either advance or are eliminated by voters. Factors that could increase this probability include stronger-than-expected opposition candidates, regional dissatisfaction with specific endorsements, or lower turnout among Trump supporters in particular races. Conversely, unified party support would decrease the probability further.

Key factors:
- Timing and concentration of primaries across 2026 — earlier contests may indicate patterns affecting later races
- Quality and viability of primary challengers to Trump-endorsed candidates — competitive races increase elimination risk
- Trump supporter turnout levels relative to opposition candidates — higher turnout typically favors endorsed candidates
- Regional variation in Trump endorsement reception — some districts or states may show weaker support for specific endorsees
- Candidate incumbency status — incumbents face different primary dynamics than open-seat candidates

Contracts:
- Will 2 Trump-endorsed candidates lose their primaries?: 2 — 13¢ Kalshi $201 (weight 44%)
- Will the number of Trump-endorsed candidates who lose their respective primary election held after Apr 10, 2026 and before Sept 16, 2026 be exactly 7 in primaries from Apr 10, 2026 to Sept 16, 2026?: 7 — 7¢ Kalshi $181 (weight 40%)
- Will 5 Trump-endorsed candidates lose their primaries?: 5 — 7¢ Kalshi $72 (weight 16%)
- Will 3 Trump-endorsed candidates lose their primaries?: 3 — 13¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%)
- Will 1 Trump-endorsed candidates lose their primaries?: 1 — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will 4 Trump-endorsed candidates lose their primaries?: 4 — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the number of Trump-endorsed candidates who lose their respective primary election held after Apr 10, 2026 and before Sept 16, 2026 be exactly 6 in primaries from Apr 10, 2026 to Sept 16, 2026?: 6 — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the number of Trump-endorsed candidates who lose their respective primary election held after Apr 10, 2026 and before Sept 16, 2026 be exactly 8 in primaries from Apr 10, 2026 to Sept 16, 2026?: 8 — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 2 more

Cite as: "8% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trumpendorseloss
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=0
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev