23% — 0
Leader: 10 at 23% · Kalshi 23% · 2 contracts · $1 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-09-21 09:01:10 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market tracks whether exactly 10 Trump-endorsed candidates will lose their primary elections between April and mid-September 2026. At 23%, the market currently views this specific outcome as unlikely, suggesting observers expect either fewer losses or a different number altogether. Trump's influence over Republican primary outcomes has varied substantially across cycles, depending on candidate quality, local dynamics, and voter sentiment in specific races. The current 23% probability reflects uncertainty about how many endorsements will prove consequential in contested primaries during this window. Key variables include the overall competitiveness of Republican primaries this cycle, the quality of Trump-backed candidates, and whether high-profile primary challenges materialize. The resolution date of September 16, 2026 will definitively settle this based on actual primary results as they occur through the summer.

Key factors:
- The number of Trump-endorsed candidates running in contested Republican primaries between April and September 2026 determines the pool size for potential losses
- Historical variance in Trump endorsement effectiveness across different election cycles and race types (House, Senate, gubernatorial) affects baseline expectations
- Primary competitiveness levels in key states and districts will determine whether Trump-backed candidates face meaningful opposition or run unopposed
- The specific definition and verification of 'Trump-endorsed' status during this period may create ambiguity in final counting
- Early primary results from April-May contests will provide real data to adjust expectations for later primaries through September

Contracts:
- Will the number of Trump-endorsed candidates who lose their respective primary election held after Apr 10, 2026 and before Sept 16, 2026 be exactly 10 in primaries from Apr 10, 2026 to Sept 16, 2026?: 10 — 23¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the number of Trump-endorsed candidates who lose their respective primary election held after Apr 10, 2026 and before Sept 16, 2026 be exactly 11 in primaries from Apr 10, 2026 to Sept 16, 2026?: 11 — 22¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-18T07:20:51.673Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "23% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trumpendorseloss
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=0
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev