95% — Will Donald Trump endorse Russell Fry in the 2026 South Carolina Senate race before Aug 11, 2026
Kalshi 95% · 1 contracts · $2K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-08-02 00:16:03 UTC

Why this matters:
Markets are pricing a 96% probability that Donald Trump will endorse Darline Graham Nordone—not Russell Fry—in South Carolina's 2026 Senate race by August 11, 2026. This reflects current expectations about Trump's endorsement choice in a competitive Republican primary. The high probability suggests either a strong signal from Trump's team, existing public statements, or betting participants' assessments of Trump's preferences among the candidates. Key drivers include recent statements from Trump or his advisors, candidate relationships with the Trump camp, polling data affecting viability perceptions, and fundraising dynamics. The resolution date of August 11 provides a firm deadline; any formal endorsement announcement before then—or lack thereof—will settle the market. Significant shifts would likely follow direct Trump comments, major candidate events, or shifts in candidate momentum.

Key factors:
- Trump's explicit public statements or advisor signals about preferred South Carolina Senate candidates
- Darline Graham Nordone's current political standing, name recognition, and perceived alignment with Trump's endorsement strategy
- Russell Fry's profile and any prior relationship or distance from Trump
- Whether Trump has already committed to an endorsement timeline or remains undecided as of late July 2026
- Campaign momentum, polling data, and fundraising among candidates competing in the Republican primary

Contracts:
- Will Donald Trump endorse Darline Graham Nordone in the 2026 South Carolina Senate race before Aug 11, 2026?: Darline Graham — 95¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-31T13:20:52.551Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trumpendorsesc
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Donald%20Trump%20endorse%20Russell%20Fry%20in%20the%202026%20South%20Carolina%20Senate%20race%20before%20Aug%2011%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev