64% — Will Trump fire 0 Cabinet members before 2027
Leader: 0 at 64% · Kalshi 64% · 4 contracts · $67 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:21:05 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 62% chance that Donald Trump will not remove any Cabinet members between now and January 1, 2027. Cabinet turnover reflects both policy disagreements and management style; Trump's first term saw significant personnel changes, while current stability depends on alignment with his administration and retention of key officials. The probability reflects market expectation of relative stability through year-end, though unforeseen policy conflicts or performance issues could trigger departures. The main catalyst will be observable Cabinet departures as they occur, with the contract resolving definitively on December 31, 2026 based on actual resignations, dismissals, or reassignments to Cabinet-level positions.

Key factors:
- Baseline Cabinet turnover rate during Trump's first term (2017-2021) saw approximately 9 Cabinet members depart over four years, suggesting historical precedent for personnel changes
- Current Cabinet members' public statements and loyalty signals to Trump's stated priorities will indicate stability; any public disagreements foreshadow potential departures
- Scheduled high-stakes policy decisions or legislative battles between May 2026 and December 2026 could strain Cabinet relationships and trigger exits
- Market is pricing in Trump's demonstrated preference for loyalty-based retention, which may support lower turnover than typical administrations
- Definition of 'Cabinet member' firing vs. voluntary resignation vs. reassignment to non-Cabinet roles will be critical to resolution clarity

Contracts:
- Will Trump fire 0 Cabinet members before 2027?: 0 — 64¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 4%)
- Will Trump fire 2 Cabinet members before 2027?: 2 — 15¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Trump fire 3 Cabinet members before 2027?: 3 — 9¢ Kalshi $65 (weight 96%)
- Will Trump fire 1 Cabinet members before 2027?: 1 — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

Cite as: "64% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trumpfire
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Trump%20fire%200%20Cabinet%20members%20before%202027
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev