92% — Donald Trump and Gavin Newsom meet before May 1, 2026
Leader: Mark Carney at 92% · Kalshi 92% · 18 contracts · $3K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-13 17:08:03 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 18 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Donald Trump and Mark Carney meet before Jul 1, 2026?: Mark Carney — 92¢ Kalshi $645 (weight 23%)
- Donald Trump and Keir Starmer meet before Jul 1, 2026?: Keir Starmer — 89¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Donald Trump and Narendra Modi meet before Jul 1, 2026?: Narendra Modi — 83¢ Kalshi $428 (weight 15%)
- Donald Trump and Jensen Huang meet before Jul 1, 2026?: Jensen Huang — 78¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy meet before Jul 1, 2026?: Volodymyr Zelenskyy — 74¢ Kalshi $792 (weight 28%)
- Donald Trump and John Thune meet before Jul 1, 2026?: John Thune — 72¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Donald Trump and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan meet before Jul 1, 2026?: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan — 65¢ Kalshi $13 (weight 0%)
- Donald Trump and Mohammed bin Salman meet before Jul 1, 2026?: Mohammed bin Salman — 31¢ Kalshi $474 (weight 17%)
- ... and 10 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-13T16:20:49.171Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "92% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trumpmeet
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Donald%20Trump%20and%20Gavin%20Newsom%20meet%20before%20May%201%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev