92% — Will Donald Trump meet (including phone calls) Kevin Warsh in Sep 2026 Leader: Catherine Connolly at 92% · Kalshi 92% · 20 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-07 12:10:07 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 20 outcomes. Why this matters: This market estimates a 94% likelihood that Donald Trump will meet or speak with Kevin Warsh at any point during September 2026. Warsh, a former Federal Reserve governor and Trump adviser, has maintained periodic contact with Trump circles. The high probability reflects their established relationship and Trump's history of consulting financial or policy advisers, though the outcome depends on whether any documented interaction occurs during the specific month. The estimate would shift downward if Trump's schedule becomes fully public with no Warsh contact, or upward if they're known to communicate regularly. Resolution occurs when September ends, at which point any meeting, call, or documented communication becomes verifiable or confirmed absent. Key factors: - Warsh's role in Trump's previous administration and ongoing relationship with his inner circle - Whether Trump's calendar and communications during September are publicly documented or confirmed - The frequency of Warsh's documented interactions with Trump in preceding months (August 2026 and earlier) - Scheduled financial, policy, or advisory meetings Trump participates in that Warsh might attend or call into - Any public announcements by Trump's team regarding meetings with former or current advisers in September Contracts: - Will Donald Trump meet (including phone calls) Catherine Connolly in Sep 2026?: Catherine Connolly — 92¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Donald Trump meet (including phone calls) Greg Abbott in Sep 2026?: Greg Abbott — 87¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Donald Trump meet (including phone calls) John Thune in Sep 2026?: John Thune — 85¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Donald Trump meet (including phone calls) Peng Liyuan in Sep 2026?: Peng Liyuan — 85¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Donald Trump meet (including phone calls) António Guterres in Sep 2026?: António Guterres — 80¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Donald Trump meet (including phone calls) Vladimir Putin in Sep 2026?: Vladimir Putin — 78¢ Kalshi $821 (weight 45%) - Will Donald Trump meet (including phone calls) Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Sep 2026?: Volodymyr Zelenskyy — 78¢ Kalshi $766 (weight 42%) - Will Donald Trump meet (including phone calls) Benjamin Netanyahu in Sep 2026?: Benjamin Netanyahu — 76¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-07T11:20:54.268Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "92% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trumpmeetm Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Donald%20Trump%20meet%20(including%20phone%20calls)%20Kevin%20Warsh%20in%20Sep%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev