87% — What will Donald Trump say during CNBC
Leader: Iran (5+ times) at 87% · Kalshi 87% · 12 contracts · $217K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-09 23:49:27 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 12 outcomes.

Contracts:
- What will Donald Trump say during THE PRESIDENT participates in a Cabinet Meeting?: Iran (5+ times) — 87¢ Kalshi $31K (weight 14%)
- What will Donald Trump say during THE PRESIDENT participates in a Cabinet Meeting?: China / Chinese — 79¢ Kalshi $11K (weight 5%)
- What will Donald Trump say during THE PRESIDENT participates in a Cabinet Meeting?: Fake News — 70¢ Kalshi $9K (weight 4%)
- What will Donald Trump say during THE PRESIDENT participates in a Cabinet Meeting?: Gas / Gasoline — 58¢ Kalshi $8K (weight 4%)
- What will Donald Trump say during THE PRESIDENT participates in a Cabinet Meeting?: Blockade — 38¢ Kalshi $14K (weight 7%)
- What will Donald Trump say during THE PRESIDENT participates in a Cabinet Meeting?: NATO — 32¢ Kalshi $14K (weight 6%)
- What will Donald Trump say during THE PRESIDENT participates in a Cabinet Meeting?: Peace — 24¢ Kalshi $28K (weight 13%)
- What will Donald Trump say during THE PRESIDENT participates in a Cabinet Meeting?: Ceasefire — 22¢ Kalshi $17K (weight 8%)
- ... and 4 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T13:20:12.747Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "87% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trumpmention
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=What%20will%20Donald%20Trump%20say%20during%20CNBC
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev