37% — How long will Donald Trump speak for at White House Correspondents' Dinner
Polymarket 21% · Kalshi 40% · 18 contracts · $87K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-03 14:59:58 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 19pp (Kalshi higher)

Contracts:
- Will Donald J. Trump Jr. be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?: Donald J. Trump Jr. — 6¢ Kalshi $33K (weight 8%)
- Will Donald Trump visit China before May 15, 2026?: Before May 15, 2026 — 84¢ Kalshi $16K (weight 7%)
- Will Donald Trump visit China before Jan 1, 2027?: China — 90¢ Kalshi $13K (weight 7%)
- Will Donald Trump leave office before August 1, 2026?: Before August 1, 2026 — 5¢ Kalshi $7K (weight 7%)
- Who will win the next presidential election?: Donald J. Trump — 3¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 6%)
- Will Donald Trump issue any executive action on imposing new or increased tariffs on any country, provided the action specifies an effective date (even if such date occurs after expiration) during in May 2026?: Yes — 78¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 6%)
- Will Donald Trump's approval rating be above 40.0% for May 7, 2026?: Yes — 17¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 6%)
- Will Donald J. Trump be the nominee for the Presidency for the Republican party?: Donald J. Trump — 3¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 6%)
- ... and 10 more

Cite as: "37% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trumpmentionduration
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=How%20long%20will%20Donald%20Trump%20speak%20for%20at%20White%20House%20Correspondents'%20Dinner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev