46% — Will there be at least 3 presidential nominations sent to the Senate in the week of Jul 19, 2026
Leader: At least 2 at 46% · Kalshi 46% · 4 contracts · $302 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-08 06:11:38 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract estimates a 15% probability that the White House will submit at least three presidential nominations to the Senate during the week of July 19, 2026. Presidential nomination activity typically correlates with legislative priorities, cabinet vacancies, or policy shifts. The current low probability suggests markets expect lighter nomination volume during this particular week, which may reflect typical summer legislative rhythms or the absence of announced vacancies requiring immediate replacement. Nomination submission decisions depend on White House scheduling, Senate availability, and the urgency of staffing needs. The outcome will be definitively resolved by counting official nominations received by the Senate during the specified week, making this a verifiable metric.

Key factors:
- Historical nomination submission patterns for mid-July weeks versus other periods in the calendar year
- Whether any cabinet-level or senior positions are vacant or anticipated to become vacant before or during that week
- Senate legislative schedule and recess dates that affect nomination processing capacity during July 19-25, 2026
- White House personnel changes, resignations, or planned departures announced before the resolution week
- Current backlog of pending nominations awaiting Senate confirmation that might prompt accelerated submissions

Contracts:
- Will there be at least 2 presidential nominations sent to the Senate in the week of Aug 2, 2026?: At least 2 — 46¢ Kalshi $302 (weight 100%)
- Will there be at least 3 presidential nominations sent to the Senate in the week of Aug 2, 2026?: At least 3 — 34¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will there be at least 5 presidential nominations sent to the Senate in the week of Aug 2, 2026?: At least 5 — 20¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will there be at least 10 presidential nominations sent to the Senate in the week of Aug 2, 2026?: At least 10 — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-07T01:20:52.297Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "46% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trumpnomnum
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20there%20be%20at%20least%203%20presidential%20nominations%20sent%20to%20the%20Senate%20in%20the%20week%20of%20Jul%2019%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev