95% — 4
Leader: 10 at 95% · Kalshi 95% · 2 contracts · $26K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-28 03:59:25 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market predicts whether Donald Trump will have visited exactly 6 distinct US states during June 2026. Markets currently assign this outcome a 44% probability, with visiting exactly 7 states at 22% and exactly 5 states at 16%. The outcome depends on Trump's travel schedule and activities during the month, which typically involves campaign events, political meetings, or other public appearances. The distribution across outcomes (5, 6, 7, 8 states) suggests uncertainty about his travel intensity. Resolution relies on applying consistent VISITAREA rules to documented visits. The market will resolve when June ends and visit records are finalized. Travel patterns of political figures are difficult to predict with precision, as schedules can change based on campaign needs, legal proceedings, or unforeseen events. The concentration of probability mass around 6 states (44%) indicates that moderate travel activity is viewed as most likely.

Key factors:
- Trump's publicly announced campaign schedule for June 2026 and any confirmed multi-state tours
- Historical baseline: average number of distinct states Trump visited in comparable recent months
- Whether the VISITAREA rules count brief stops, official events only, or residency—clarifying the definition boundary
- Potential schedule disruptions from legal, medical, or emergency circumstances that could reduce or increase travel
- Market volume and trading activity remains at $0 over 24 hours, indicating minimal liquidity and potentially unreliable price discovery

Contracts:
- Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be exactly 10 in Jul 2026?: 10 — 95¢ Kalshi $20K (weight 76%)
- Will the number of distinct US states Donald Trump has visited (per VISITAREA rules) be exactly 11 in Jul 2026?: 11 — 3¢ Kalshi $6K (weight 24%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-28T03:20:49.350Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "95% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trumpnumstates
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=4
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev