34% — Will Donald Trump leave office before January 20, 2029
Leader: Before January 20, 2029 at 34% · Kalshi 34% · 3 contracts · $5K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 05:22:55 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that Donald Trump will not complete his second term through January 20, 2029. The 27% estimate appears driven by two competing dynamics: very low near-term risk (contracts pricing imminent resignation or removal at just 5%) suggests markets view immediate departure as unlikely, while the longer-term probability accounts for cumulative risks including health considerations, legal proceedings, or political developments that could emerge over a 2.5-year horizon. The baseline expectation remains that Trump serves his full term, but markets assign non-trivial probability to unexpected developments. Ongoing geopolitical events, court decisions on pending cases, and any major political shifts would be primary catalysts that could materially move this probability in either direction.

Key factors:
- Near-term departure probability (before August 2026) is priced at only 5%, indicating markets assess immediate resignation or removal as highly unlikely
- The probability increases substantially when extending the timeline to 2029, suggesting cumulative risk concerns rather than imminent threats
- Current contracts show relatively modest trading volume on the January 2029 contract ($2,796 24-hour), indicating limited liquidity and potential for larger probability swings with significant new information
- Markets simultaneously price very high probability (83-90%) of Trump visiting China in the near term, suggesting ongoing international engagement is expected
- The 27% probability implies roughly 73% confidence in term completion, reflecting market base case of normal presidential tenure absent extraordinary circumstances

Contracts:
- Will Donald Trump leave office before January 20, 2029?: Before January 20, 2029 — 34¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 25%)
- Will Donald Trump leave office before 2028?: Before 2028 — 22¢ Kalshi $176 (weight 4%)
- Will Donald Trump leave office before August 1, 2026?: Before August 1, 2026 — 3¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 72%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:09.939Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "34% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trumpout27
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Donald%20Trump%20leave%20office%20before%20January%2020%2C%202029
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev