6% — Will Larry Householder receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027 Kalshi 6% · 17 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-22 01:54:47 UTC Why this matters: This probability reflects the estimated chance that former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder receives a presidential pardon before January 1, 2027. Householder was convicted in 2020 of racketeering and bribery related to a $60 million nuclear power plant subsidy scheme. The 11% probability is substantially lower than comparable white-collar defendants like Sam Bankman-Fried (9%), reflecting several constraints: Householder lacks the high-profile advocacy networks that some high-net-worth defendants attract, his crimes involved state-level corruption rather than financial fraud, and there is limited public indication he has been prioritized for clemency consideration. The primary factors that could shift this probability would be a direct statement from the sitting president regarding Householder's case, organized advocacy efforts from Ohio political figures, or a meaningful change in his legal status. The resolution deadline of January 1, 2027 is approximately six months away, narrowing the window for any clemency action. Key factors: - Householder's conviction involved state-level corruption and racketeering rather than high-profile financial crimes, which historically receive more frequent pardon consideration - No public statements or documented advocacy efforts from major political figures in Ohio have emerged supporting a pardon as of mid-2026 - Comparable white-collar defendants (Bankman-Fried, Holmes) are priced at 9-12%, suggesting Householder ranks lower in perceived pardon probability relative to other incarcerated figures - The sitting president has not indicated Householder is under clemency review, and the deadline is approximately six months away, constraining the action window - Householder's public profile has diminished significantly since his conviction, reducing organic political pressure for executive action compared to higher-visibility cases Contracts: - Will Derek Chauvin receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Derek Chauvin — 5¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 95%) - Will Steve Bannon receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Steve Bannon — 5¢ Kalshi $34 (weight 3%) - Will Edward Snowden receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Edward Snowden — 3¢ Kalshi $13 (weight 1%) - Will Michael Cohen receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Michael Cohen — 25¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 0%) - Will Donald Trump receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Donald Trump — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Keonne Rodriguez receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Keonne Rodriguez — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Sam Bankman-Fried receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Sam Bankman-Fried — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Jared Kushner receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Jared Kushner — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 9 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-21T23:20:50.982Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "6% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trumppardon Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Larry%20Householder%20receive%20a%20presidential%20pardon%20before%20Jan%201%2C%202027 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev