11% — Will Larry Householder receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027
Kalshi 11% · 20 contracts · $413 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:21:23 UTC

Why this matters:
This market reflects the probability that former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder will receive a presidential pardon before January 1, 2027—roughly eight months away. Householder was convicted in 2021 of federal racketeering and bribery charges related to a $60 million corruption scheme, making him a lower-profile figure compared to other pardon candidates. The 12% probability suggests traders see meaningful but limited odds of a pardon during the current presidential term. Key drivers would include whether Householder receives prominent advocacy from political allies, whether the Justice Department reopens aspects of his case, and how many high-profile pardons the administration grants overall. The main catalyst for resolution is the presidential term ending on January 1, 2027, at which point his eligibility for a pardon becomes moot.

Key factors:
- Householder's conviction involved corruption unrelated to political causes or national security, which historically receives fewer pardons than cases with ideological framing
- His case has generated minimal recent media coverage or public advocacy campaigns compared to other pending pardon candidates
- The comparison contracts show similar low probabilities for non-aligned figures (Derek Chauvin at 8%) versus higher rates for perceived political allies or security-related cases (John Kiriakou at 44%)
- Ohio remains a politically significant state, which could increase likelihood of state-focused criminal justice interventions
- The eight-month timeline constrains opportunities for new developments or advocacy campaigns that could shift likelihood

Contracts:
- Will John Kiriakou receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: John Kiriakou — 39¢ Kalshi $237 (weight 57%)
- Will Julian Assange receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Julian Assange — 7¢ Kalshi $145 (weight 35%)
- Will Ghislaine Maxwell receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Ghislaine Maxwell — 16¢ Kalshi $21 (weight 5%)
- Will Edward Snowden receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Edward Snowden — 10¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 1%)
- Will Tim Leissner receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Tim Leissner — 20¢ Kalshi $4 (weight 1%)
- Will Donald Trump receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Donald Trump — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Keonne Rodriguez receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Keonne Rodriguez — 25¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Derek Chauvin receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Derek Chauvin — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 12 more

Cite as: "11% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trumppardon
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Larry%20Householder%20receive%20a%20presidential%20pardon%20before%20Jan%201%2C%202027
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev