12% — Will Larry Householder receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027 Kalshi 12% · 19 contracts · $6K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-27 07:48:11 UTC Why this matters: This market reflects the probability that former Ohio House Speaker Larry Householder will receive a presidential pardon before January 1, 2027—roughly eight months away. Householder was convicted in 2021 of federal racketeering and bribery charges related to a $60 million corruption scheme, making him a lower-profile figure compared to other pardon candidates. The 12% probability suggests traders see meaningful but limited odds of a pardon during the current presidential term. Key drivers would include whether Householder receives prominent advocacy from political allies, whether the Justice Department reopens aspects of his case, and how many high-profile pardons the administration grants overall. The main catalyst for resolution is the presidential term ending on January 1, 2027, at which point his eligibility for a pardon becomes moot. Key factors: - Householder's conviction involved corruption unrelated to political causes or national security, which historically receives fewer pardons than cases with ideological framing - His case has generated minimal recent media coverage or public advocacy campaigns compared to other pending pardon candidates - The comparison contracts show similar low probabilities for non-aligned figures (Derek Chauvin at 8%) versus higher rates for perceived political allies or security-related cases (John Kiriakou at 44%) - Ohio remains a politically significant state, which could increase likelihood of state-focused criminal justice interventions - The eight-month timeline constrains opportunities for new developments or advocacy campaigns that could shift likelihood Contracts: - Will Nicole Daedone receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Nicole Daedone — 30¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 22%) - Will Rachel Cherwitz receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Rachel Cherwitz — 25¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 17%) - Will Keonne Rodriguez receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Keonne Rodriguez — 22¢ Kalshi $700 (weight 11%) - Will Elizabeth Holmes receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Elizabeth Holmes — 13¢ Kalshi $654 (weight 10%) - Will Charlie Javice receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Charlie Javice — 23¢ Kalshi $546 (weight 9%) - Will Roger Ver receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Roger Ver — 15¢ Kalshi $483 (weight 8%) - Will Martin Shkreli receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Martin Shkreli — 15¢ Kalshi $450 (weight 7%) - Will Julian Assange receive a presidential pardon before Jan 1, 2027?: Julian Assange — 7¢ Kalshi $411 (weight 7%) - ... and 11 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-27T07:20:49.327Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "12% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trumppardon Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Larry%20Householder%20receive%20a%20presidential%20pardon%20before%20Jan%201%2C%202027 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev