29% — Will Alex Mashinsky receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029 Kalshi 29% · 20 contracts · $349 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 09:43:07 UTC Why this matters: This market estimates the odds that Alex Mashinsky, the former Celsius CEO convicted in cryptocurrency fraud cases, receives a presidential pardon before January 21, 2029. At 31%, the probability reflects uncertainty about whether a sitting or future president would extend clemency to a prominent crypto-industry figure convicted of financial crimes. The estimate is influenced by historical pardon rates for white-collar financial crimes, the political salience of cryptocurrency regulation, and the identity of the sitting president. Comparable contracts suggest pardons for major financial criminals remain relatively unlikely—related contracts for similar figures range from 6% to 50%—though outcomes vary significantly based on the specific case and defendant. The primary uncertainty driver is whether a future administration prioritizes cryptocurrency industry rehabilitation or maintains distance from controversial convictions in the sector. Key factors: - Mashinsky's conviction date, sentence length, and classification of charges relative to historical pardon patterns for financial criminals - Current and future presidential administrations' stated positions on cryptocurrency regulation and industry figures - Market pricing of similar pardon contracts for comparable defendants, which currently range 6-50% across different individuals and timeframes - Whether Mashinsky exhausts or succeeds in appellate proceedings before the pardon deadline - Public advocacy from cryptocurrency industry figures or political actors regarding clemency for Mashinsky Contracts: - Will Leon Stanton receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Leon Stanton — 13¢ Kalshi $150 (weight 43%) - Will Roger Ver receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Roger Ver — 12¢ Kalshi $73 (weight 21%) - Will Pete Rose receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Pete Rose — 21¢ Kalshi $42 (weight 12%) - Will Donald Trump receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Donald Trump — 52¢ Kalshi $30 (weight 9%) - Will Pam Bondi receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Pam Bondi — 32¢ Kalshi $26 (weight 7%) - Will Pete Hegseth receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Pete Hegseth — 39¢ Kalshi $22 (weight 6%) - Will JD Vance receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: JD Vance — 48¢ Kalshi $4 (weight 1%) - Will Sean Combs receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Sean Combs — 32¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 1%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T09:20:48.717Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "29% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trumppardons Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Alex%20Mashinsky%20receive%20a%20presidential%20pardon%20before%20Jan%2021%2C%202029 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev