30% — Will Alex Mashinsky receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029 Kalshi 30% · 18 contracts · $486 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-25 09:21:48 UTC Why this matters: This probability reflects traders' assessment of whether Alex Mashinsky, founder of Celsius Network who was convicted of fraud and conspiracy in 2024, will receive a presidential pardon before January 21, 2029. The 34% probability sits in the middle range relative to other high-profile defendants facing similar questions. The main factors driving this level are Mashinsky's profile as a cryptocurrency executive rather than a political figure, and the precedent set by any earlier presidential pardon decisions in similar cases. The primary catalyst for uncertainty resolution will be any pardon announcements by the sitting president, with major decision-making likely occurring in the final weeks before the January 2029 deadline. Comparable defendants facing pardon consideration—including financial fraud cases like FTX's Sam Bankman-Fried (35¢) and Elizabeth Holmes (36¢)—trade at similar odds, suggesting markets view Mashinsky's likelihood as aligned with other major financial crime defendants. Key factors: - Mashinsky was convicted in March 2024 on fraud charges related to Celsius Network collapse; pardon probability may shift based on his sentencing severity and restitution obligations - Cryptocurrency-related convictions have not historically received frequent executive pardons; any change in political attitudes toward crypto could materially affect odds - Comparable high-profile financial fraud defendants (SBF, Holmes, Maxwell) trade between 35-36¢, suggesting market consensus that non-political financial crimes receive pardons roughly one-third of the time - Presidential pardon authority is unlimited but typically concentrated in final weeks of an administration; timing announcements would dramatically shift probability as deadline approaches - Any public statements from the current or future administration regarding cryptocurrency fraud or Celsius specifically would serve as a concrete signal of pardon likelihood Contracts: - Will Ghislaine Maxwell receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Ghislaine Maxwell — 31¢ Kalshi $157 (weight 32%) - Will Donald Trump Jr. receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Donald Trump Jr. — 62¢ Kalshi $150 (weight 31%) - Will Jared Kushner receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Jared Kushner — 49¢ Kalshi $67 (weight 14%) - Will Eric Trump receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Eric Trump — 49¢ Kalshi $67 (weight 14%) - Will Pete Rose receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Pete Rose — 23¢ Kalshi $17 (weight 3%) - Will Sean Combs receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Sean Combs — 15¢ Kalshi $13 (weight 3%) - Will Eric Adams receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Eric Adams — 35¢ Kalshi $12 (weight 2%) - Will Donald Trump receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Donald Trump — 52¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 1%) - ... and 10 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-25T09:20:50.890Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "30% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trumppardons Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Alex%20Mashinsky%20receive%20a%20presidential%20pardon%20before%20Jan%2021%2C%202029 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev