42% — Will Alex Mashinsky receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029
Kalshi 42% · 20 contracts · $5K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:21:42 UTC

Why this matters:
This market estimates the odds that Alex Mashinsky, the former Celsius CEO convicted in cryptocurrency fraud cases, receives a presidential pardon before January 21, 2029. At 31%, the probability reflects uncertainty about whether a sitting or future president would extend clemency to a prominent crypto-industry figure convicted of financial crimes. The estimate is influenced by historical pardon rates for white-collar financial crimes, the political salience of cryptocurrency regulation, and the identity of the sitting president. Comparable contracts suggest pardons for major financial criminals remain relatively unlikely—related contracts for similar figures range from 6% to 50%—though outcomes vary significantly based on the specific case and defendant. The primary uncertainty driver is whether a future administration prioritizes cryptocurrency industry rehabilitation or maintains distance from controversial convictions in the sector.

Key factors:
- Mashinsky's conviction date, sentence length, and classification of charges relative to historical pardon patterns for financial criminals
- Current and future presidential administrations' stated positions on cryptocurrency regulation and industry figures
- Market pricing of similar pardon contracts for comparable defendants, which currently range 6-50% across different individuals and timeframes
- Whether Mashinsky exhausts or succeeds in appellate proceedings before the pardon deadline
- Public advocacy from cryptocurrency industry figures or political actors regarding clemency for Mashinsky

Contracts:
- Will Donald Trump Jr. receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Donald Trump Jr. — 54¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 53%)
- Will Jared Kushner receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Jared Kushner — 41¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 23%)
- Will Ghislaine Maxwell receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Ghislaine Maxwell — 47¢ Kalshi $720 (weight 14%)
- Will Donald Trump receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Donald Trump — 52¢ Kalshi $379 (weight 7%)
- Will Barron Trump receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Barron Trump — 40¢ Kalshi $75 (weight 1%)
- Will Elizabeth Holmes receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Elizabeth Holmes — 38¢ Kalshi $19 (weight 0%)
- Will Edward Snowden receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Edward Snowden — 39¢ Kalshi $16 (weight 0%)
- Will Scott Bessent receive a presidential pardon before Jan 21, 2029?: Scott Bessent — 46¢ Kalshi $14 (weight 0%)
- ... and 12 more

Cite as: "42% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trumppardons
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Alex%20Mashinsky%20receive%20a%20presidential%20pardon%20before%20Jan%2021%2C%202029
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev