74% — Will the number of Trump rallies be above 30 from January 1 to November 3, 2026 Leader: Above 15 at 74% · Kalshi 74% · 6 contracts · $52 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 06:43:41 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes. Why this matters: This contracts series tracks whether Trump will hold more than 15, 20, 25, 35, or 40 campaign rallies between January and November 2026. The 80% probability on "above 15" reflects market expectation that he will exceed the lowest threshold, while the 55% price on "above 25" suggests substantial uncertainty about higher rally frequencies. The current pricing indicates traders expect Trump to hold somewhere in the 15-30 rally range during this period. Campaign intensity typically correlates with election proximity; with November 2026 being a midterm cycle, rally frequency depends partly on Trump's formal campaign involvement and the GOP's resource allocation. The main factors shifting probabilities would be whether Trump becomes an official 2028 candidate (increasing rally activity) or faces competing demands. Resolution depends on documented rally attendance counts from recognized Trump campaign events. Key factors: - Trump's official 2028 candidacy status — if formally announced, expected to significantly increase rally frequency - Historical rally pace in 2022-2024 midterm/primary cycles — establishes baseline for comparable campaign intensity - Competing time demands such as legal proceedings or other business commitments affecting availability - Definition of qualifying rallies — whether only official campaign events count or broader political appearances are included - Geographic distribution patterns — whether he concentrates rallies in specific swing states or spreads activity nationally Contracts: - Will the number of Trump rallies be above 15 from January 1 to November 3, 2026?: Above 15 — 74¢ Kalshi $12 (weight 24%) - Will the number of Trump rallies be above 20 from January 1 to November 3, 2026?: Above 20 — 66¢ Kalshi $20 (weight 39%) - Will the number of Trump rallies be above 25 from January 1 to November 3, 2026?: Above 25 — 54¢ Kalshi $19 (weight 37%) - Will the number of Trump rallies be above 30 from January 1 to November 3, 2026?: Above 30 — 44¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the number of Trump rallies be above 35 from January 1 to November 3, 2026?: Above 35 — 31¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the number of Trump rallies be above 40 from January 1 to November 3, 2026?: Above 40 — 18¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T06:20:48.944Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "74% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trumprallies Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20number%20of%20Trump%20rallies%20be%20above%2030%20from%20January%201%20to%20November%203%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev