66% — Will Trump say "Make Iran Great Again" before May 1, 2026
Leader: Greenland at 66% · Kalshi 66% · 14 contracts · $5K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-17 17:52:19 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 14 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Will Trump say "Greenland" before Jul 1, 2026?: Greenland — 66¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 28%)
- Will Trump say "Crypto / Bitcoin" before Jul 1, 2026?: Crypto / Bitcoin — 62¢ Kalshi $31 (weight 1%)
- Will Trump say "Autism" before Jul 1, 2026?: Autism — 61¢ Kalshi $49 (weight 1%)
- Will Trump say "American Dream" before Jul 1, 2026?: American Dream — 57¢ Kalshi $109 (weight 2%)
- Will Trump say "Kimmel" before Jul 1, 2026?: Kimmel — 52¢ Kalshi $132 (weight 3%)
- Will Trump say "Palestine / Palestinian" before Jul 1, 2026?: Palestine / Palestinian — 50¢ Kalshi $103 (weight 2%)
- Will Trump say "UFO / UAP" before Jul 1, 2026?: UFO / UAP — 41¢ Kalshi $424 (weight 9%)
- Will Trump say "Fat shot / Ozempic" before Jul 1, 2026?: Fat shot / Ozempic — 41¢ Kalshi $71 (weight 2%)
- ... and 6 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-17T17:20:21.332Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "66% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trumpsaymonth
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Trump%20say%20%22Make%20Iran%20Great%20Again%22%20before%20May%201%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev