5% — Will Trump say "Make Iran Great Again" before May 1, 2026 Leader: UFO / UAP at 5% · Kalshi 5% · 3 contracts · $7K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-09 20:48:32 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract measures the likelihood that Donald Trump will publicly say the phrase 'Make Iran Great Again' before May 1, 2026. The 61% probability reflects traders' assessment that Trump is more likely than not to use this slogan in speeches, statements, or media appearances within the next 11 months. The current level is driven by Trump's documented pattern of using similar catchphrase variations tied to policy positions, balanced against the specificity of this exact phrase and its relatively niche policy application compared to his more frequent talking points. The main factors pushing probability up include increased media coverage of Iran policy and Trump's public schedule; factors pushing it down include the phrase's limited strategic or rhetorical advantage compared to his typical messaging patterns. Any significant escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions or Trump campaign events focused on foreign policy would likely shift expectations upward. The contracts resolve based on verifiable public statements through May 1, 2026. Key factors: - Trump's historical frequency of using 'Make [X] Great Again' formulations and how often they relate to specific foreign policy targets - The number and prominence of Trump public events, rallies, or media appearances scheduled between now and May 2026 - Current geopolitical tensions with Iran and whether U.S.-Iran relations become a central campaign or policy messaging focus - Baseline rate of Trump statements containing precise policy-linked catchphrases versus his more general talking points - Definition and verification criteria for what counts as 'saying' the phrase — whether written statements, quoted speech, or only direct spoken utterances qualify Contracts: - Will Trump say "UFO / UAP" before Aug 1, 2026?: UFO / UAP — 5¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 51%) - Will Trump say "Autism" before Aug 1, 2026?: Autism — 5¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 29%) - Will Trump say "Pelosi" before Aug 1, 2026?: Pelosi — 3¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 20%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-31T01:20:51.833Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "5% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trumpsaymonth Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Trump%20say%20%22Make%20Iran%20Great%20Again%22%20before%20May%201%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev