9% — Will Trump say "Marjorie Traitor Greene" before Jul 1, 2026 Leader: Low Energy at 9% · Kalshi 9% · 8 contracts · $7K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 03:13:30 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract estimates a 55% chance that former President Trump will use the phrase 'Marjorie Traitor Greene' in public before July 1, 2026. The probability reflects Trump's documented history of assigning insulting nicknames to political figures, balanced against the specificity required—he would need to use this particular phrase rather than other possible variants or criticisms of Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene. The timeline is approximately two months. The main drivers are Trump's communication frequency and willingness to escalate rhetoric toward Greene, potentially influenced by political developments or statements from her that provoke a response. Related contracts show Trump frequently uses names and phrases in public appearances, though predicting exact wording remains inherently uncertain. The resolution depends on documented public statements, speeches, social media posts, or media appearances through the deadline. Key factors: - Trump's baseline frequency of public statements and nickname usage over comparable two-month periods in 2025-2026 - Prior instances of Trump using similar 'traitor' language toward specific political figures and whether Greene has been a recent target - Whether major political events between now and July 1 (legislative votes, hearings, or statements from Greene) would prompt Trump to respond - The definition of 'say' as applied to various media formats—whether it covers prepared statements, spontaneous remarks, Truth Social posts, or only direct speech - Historical accuracy of prediction markets on Trump's specific phrase usage versus broader behavioral patterns Contracts: - Will Trump say "Low Energy" before Jul 1, 2026?: Low Energy — 9¢ Kalshi $782 (weight 11%) - Will Trump say "Biden Crime Family" before Jul 1, 2026?: Biden Crime Family — 8¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 39%) - Will Trump say "Rocket Man" before Jul 1, 2026?: Rocket Man — 5¢ Kalshi $576 (weight 8%) - Will Trump say "Little Communist" before Jul 1, 2026?: Little Communist — 4¢ Kalshi $741 (weight 10%) - Will Trump say "Marjorie Traitor Greene" before Jul 1, 2026?: Marjorie Traitor Greene — 4¢ Kalshi $431 (weight 6%) - Will Trump say "Crazy Bernie" before Jul 1, 2026?: Crazy Bernie — 4¢ Kalshi $224 (weight 3%) - Will Trump say "Tampon Tim" before Jul 1, 2026?: Tampon Tim — 3¢ Kalshi $950 (weight 13%) - Will Trump say "Comrade Kamala" before Jul 1, 2026?: Comrade Kamala — 3¢ Kalshi $697 (weight 10%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T02:20:49.577Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "9% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trumpsaynickname Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Trump%20say%20%22Marjorie%20Traitor%20Greene%22%20before%20Jul%201%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev