40% — Will Trump say "Marjorie Traitor Greene" before Jul 1, 2026
Leader: Piggy at 40% · Kalshi 40% · 12 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-25 11:00:40 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 12 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 78% probability that Trump will use the phrase 'Marjorie Traitor Greene' in public remarks before October 1, 2026. The high probability reflects Trump's documented history of creating and repeating nicknames for political figures, combined with ongoing tensions between him and Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene. The probability could shift based on whether Trump continues active campaigning and public appearances in the coming months, or if a reconciliation occurs between the two figures. The main catalyst affecting this outcome will be the frequency and nature of Trump's public communications through early October, including campaign rallies, media appearances, and social media posts. Related nickname contracts show traders also expect phrases like 'Slopadopolous' (45¢) and 'Piggy' (41¢), suggesting broader confidence in Trump's continued nickname usage. Lower-probability phrases like 'Comrade Kamala' and 'Biden Crime Family' indicate more selective expectations about specific rhetoric.

Key factors:
- Trump's historical pattern of creating and repeating derogatory nicknames for political opponents across multiple years and communication channels
- Current political distance between Trump and Rep. Greene, which could either persist or narrow, materially affecting nickname usage frequency
- Volume of Trump's public appearances and media exposure between now and October 1, 2026, as more speaking events increase probability of specific phrases being spoken
- Competing nickname contracts priced at 41-45¢ suggest traders expect other phrases with similar or greater likelihood, creating relative valuation context
- No scheduled triggering event or debate guaranteed before October 1 makes the outcome dependent on unpredictable communication choices across a 10-week window

Contracts:
- Will Trump say "Piggy" before Oct 1, 2026?: Piggy — 40¢ Kalshi $847 (weight 36%)
- Will Trump say "Whack Job / Wack Job" before Oct 1, 2026?: Whack Job / Wack Job — 40¢ Kalshi $464 (weight 20%)
- Will Trump say "Slopadopolous / Slopadopolus" before Oct 1, 2026?: Slopadopolous / Slopadopolus — 26¢ Kalshi $29 (weight 1%)
- Will Trump say "Fat Slob" before Oct 1, 2026?: Fat Slob — 16¢ Kalshi $102 (weight 4%)
- Will Trump say "Trainwreck" before Oct 1, 2026?: Trainwreck — 16¢ Kalshi $59 (weight 2%)
- Will Trump say "Crazy Bernie" before Oct 1, 2026?: Crazy Bernie — 9¢ Kalshi $454 (weight 19%)
- Will Trump say "Little Communist" before Oct 1, 2026?: Little Communist — 9¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 0%)
- Will Trump say "Numbskull" before Oct 1, 2026?: Numbskull — 8¢ Kalshi $131 (weight 6%)
- ... and 4 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-10T20:20:52.396Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "40% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trumpsaynickname
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Trump%20say%20%22Marjorie%20Traitor%20Greene%22%20before%20Jul%201%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev