65% — Will Donald Trump visit New York before Jan 1, 2027 Leader: North Carolina at 65% · Kalshi 65% · 9 contracts · $7 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-24 22:08:20 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 9 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability reflects the market's assessment that Donald Trump has a high likelihood of visiting New York before January 1, 2027. The 91% price suggests traders view a New York visit as substantially probable within the remaining eight months. The main drivers of this level are Trump's known residences and business interests in New York—including Trump Tower in Manhattan—and his historical pattern of frequent U.S. travel during his presidency. The probability could decline if Trump's schedule becomes heavily focused on travel elsewhere or if unexpected circumstances limit his movement. The key near-term catalyst is tracking his actual travel schedule over the next several months; any confirmed New York visit would resolve this contract. Notably, related Kalshi contracts show high probabilities for Trump visiting China before year-end, suggesting market confidence in his international travel plans as well. Key factors: - Trump maintains significant personal and business interests in New York, including Trump Tower headquarters and real estate holdings that typically require periodic attention - Historical travel patterns show Trump frequently visited New York during his presidency for both business and personal reasons - No scheduled restrictions or announced plans currently preventing Trump from traveling domestically within the remaining 243 days until expiration - The 91% price is substantially higher than the 68% runner-up contract, indicating market consensus around this outcome rather than close competition - Related contracts pricing China visits at 89-93% suggest traders expect active travel plans generally, which could correlate with New York accessibility Contracts: - Will Donald Trump visit North Carolina before Jan 1, 2027?: North Carolina — 65¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Donald Trump visit California before Jan 1, 2027?: California — 64¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 75%) - Will Donald Trump visit South Carolina before Jan 1, 2027?: South Carolina — 49¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Donald Trump visit Montana before Jan 1, 2027?: Montana — 46¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Donald Trump visit Minnesota before Jan 1, 2027?: Minnesota — 44¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 25%) - Will Donald Trump visit Kansas before Jan 1, 2027?: Kansas — 32¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Donald Trump visit Colorado before Jan 1, 2027?: Colorado — 28¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Donald Trump visit Hawaii before Jan 1, 2027?: Hawaii — 21¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 1 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-24T21:20:49.496Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "65% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trumpstates Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Donald%20Trump%20visit%20New%20York%20before%20Jan%201%2C%202027 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev