72% — Will Donald Trump visit New York before Jan 1, 2027 Leader: North Carolina at 72% · Kalshi 72% · 9 contracts · $12 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-09 19:07:21 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 9 outcomes. Why this matters: The market currently estimates a 72% probability that Donald Trump will visit New York before January 1, 2027. This assessment reflects traders' expectations about Trump's travel patterns and campaign activities during the final five months of 2026. The probability appears driven by Trump's historical frequency of New York visits, his base of operations there, and anticipated campaign scheduling for the 2028 election cycle. Key uncertainties include unexpected schedule changes, health considerations, or shifts in campaign priorities. The actual resolution will be determined by verifiable news reports of Trump entering New York state before the year closes. Comparatively, the market prices other state visits as follows: South Carolina at 72%, North Carolina at 62%, Iowa at 64%, California at 49%, and Alaska at just 9%, suggesting traders view New York as a similarly probable destination to South Carolina for Trump's remaining visits in 2026. Key factors: - Trump's residence and business headquarters in New York, combined with his historical frequency of New York visits, provides a structural baseline for the probability estimate - The final five-month window (August-December 2026) encompasses the post-midterm election period when campaign activity typically concentrates in swing states and candidate home territories - South Carolina and North Carolina both trade at comparable or lower probabilities (72% and 62% respectively) despite being traditional campaign hotspots, suggesting New York's baseline reflects personal/business travel rather than purely campaign considerations - The observation that Alaska trades at only 9% while Iowa trades at 64% indicates the market distinguishes sharply between geographically distant locations and competitive electoral territories - Verifiable reporting through news outlets, campaign announcements, or Trump's own public statements would constitute the only acceptable evidence for resolution Contracts: - Will Donald Trump visit North Carolina before Jan 1, 2027?: North Carolina — 72¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Donald Trump visit Iowa before Jan 1, 2027?: Iowa — 70¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Donald Trump visit South Carolina before Jan 1, 2027?: South Carolina — 70¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Donald Trump visit Minnesota before Jan 1, 2027?: Minnesota — 48¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 14%) - Will Donald Trump visit Montana before Jan 1, 2027?: Montana — 35¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Donald Trump visit Kansas before Jan 1, 2027?: Kansas — 27¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Donald Trump visit Colorado before Jan 1, 2027?: Colorado — 21¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 86%) - Will Donald Trump visit Hawaii before Jan 1, 2027?: Hawaii — 16¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 1 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-09T18:20:49.962Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "72% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trumpstates Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Donald%20Trump%20visit%20New%20York%20before%20Jan%201%2C%202027 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev