92% — Will Donald Trump visit New York before Jan 1, 2027
Leader: New England at 92% · Kalshi 92% · 12 contracts · $202 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:21:03 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 12 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the market's assessment that Donald Trump has a high likelihood of visiting New York before January 1, 2027. The 91% price suggests traders view a New York visit as substantially probable within the remaining eight months. The main drivers of this level are Trump's known residences and business interests in New York—including Trump Tower in Manhattan—and his historical pattern of frequent U.S. travel during his presidency. The probability could decline if Trump's schedule becomes heavily focused on travel elsewhere or if unexpected circumstances limit his movement. The key near-term catalyst is tracking his actual travel schedule over the next several months; any confirmed New York visit would resolve this contract. Notably, related Kalshi contracts show high probabilities for Trump visiting China before year-end, suggesting market confidence in his international travel plans as well.

Key factors:
- Trump maintains significant personal and business interests in New York, including Trump Tower headquarters and real estate holdings that typically require periodic attention
- Historical travel patterns show Trump frequently visited New York during his presidency for both business and personal reasons
- No scheduled restrictions or announced plans currently preventing Trump from traveling domestically within the remaining 243 days until expiration
- The 91% price is substantially higher than the 68% runner-up contract, indicating market consensus around this outcome rather than close competition
- Related contracts pricing China visits at 89-93% suggest traders expect active travel plans generally, which could correlate with New York accessibility

Contracts:
- Will Donald Trump visit Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, or Vermont before Jan 1, 2027?: New England — 92¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Donald Trump visit New York before Jan 1, 2027?: New York — 91¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 5%)
- Will Donald Trump visit Alaska before Jan 1, 2027?: Alaska — 82¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 3%)
- Will Donald Trump visit California before Jan 1, 2027?: California — 70¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Donald Trump visit Wisconsin before Jan 1, 2027?: Wisconsin — 67¢ Kalshi $50 (weight 25%)
- Will Donald Trump visit North Carolina before Jan 1, 2027?: North Carolina — 61¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Donald Trump visit South Carolina before Jan 1, 2027?: South Carolina — 60¢ Kalshi $35 (weight 17%)
- Will Donald Trump visit Montana before Jan 1, 2027?: Montana — 56¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 4 more

Cite as: "92% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trumpstates
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Donald%20Trump%20visit%20New%20York%20before%20Jan%201%2C%202027
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev