23% — Will President Trump issue any executive action on declassifying or releasing records related to unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) or UFOs before Jul 1, 2026
Leader: Before Aug 1, 2026 at 23% · Kalshi 23% · 2 contracts · $568 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-25 23:48:30 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability indicates traders assess roughly a 26% chance that President Trump will issue an executive action on UAP/UFO declassification or record releases by August 1, 2026—less likely than not, but a meaningful tail scenario. The relatively low probability reflects Trump's competing priorities and the lack of explicit recent public commitments on this specific issue, despite his stated interest in government transparency. The July 1 contract trades slightly lower at 20%, suggesting incrementally lower odds for the tighter deadline. Key catalysts include formal Freedom of Information Act requests, congressional UAP hearing testimony, or statements from Trump or his administration that signal imminent action. Traders would monitor whether UAP remains a prominent policy focus versus receding amid other administration priorities.

Key factors:
- Trump's prior public statements on UAP/UFO transparency and whether recent comments indicate active policy development
- Volume and intensity of congressional UAP legislative efforts—House or Senate bills that might prompt executive response
- Any public commitments Trump makes in May-June 2026 specifically tying executive action timing to the July-August window
- Historical pace of Trump executive actions in his first 100+ days of office; whether declassification orders have appeared in early 2026
- Statements from key officials (Defense Secretary, National Security Advisor, DNI) about UAP transparency timelines

Contracts:
- Will President Trump issue any executive action on declassifying or releasing records related to unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) or UFOs before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026 — 23¢ Kalshi $191 (weight 34%)
- Will President Trump issue any executive action on declassifying or releasing records related to unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP) or UFOs before Jul 1, 2026?: Before Jul 1, 2026 — 3¢ Kalshi $377 (weight 66%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-25T23:20:52.738Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "23% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trumpuap
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20President%20Trump%20issue%20any%20executive%20action%20on%20declassifying%20or%20releasing%20records%20related%20to%20unidentified%20anomalous%20phenomena%20(UAP)%20or%20UFOs%20before%20Jul%201%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev