7% — Will Donald Trump attend UFC 332
Leader: Yes at 7% · Kalshi 7% · 4 contracts · $27K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-09 23:24:57 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 12% probability reflects market expectations that Donald Trump will attend UFC 332, based on trading activity across four related contracts. The relatively low probability suggests skepticism about attendance, though the comparable 12% price for UFC 331 indicates uncertainty extends across multiple upcoming events rather than specific factors tied to UFC 332 itself. The main drivers are Trump's historical attendance patterns at major sporting events, his current political schedule and commitments, and the timing of UFC 332's event date. The event's actual occurrence will provide definitive resolution, making the scheduled date the key catalyst that triggers settlement. Broader context includes Trump's variable public appearances and his demonstrated interest in high-profile entertainment venues, balanced against unpredictable scheduling demands.

Key factors:
- UFC 332's scheduled event date and whether it falls during a period when Trump's political or personal schedule permits attendance
- Historical frequency of Trump attending UFC events in prior years compared to other major sporting events
- Trading volume remains extremely low for UFC 332 ($8 in 24h volume), suggesting limited market confidence or interest in this specific outcome
- The price for UFC 331 attendance equals UFC 332's probability (12%), indicating traders may view these as similarly unlikely rather than basing assessments on distinct event-specific factors
- Distance between today (August 2026) and UFC 332's event date affects the reliability of current probability as a predictor, with earlier events (UFC 330 at 9%) commanding higher perceived likelihood

Contracts:
- Will Donald Trump attend UFC 331?: Yes — 7¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%)
- Will Donald Trump attend UFC 332?: Yes — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Donald Trump attend UFC 333?: Yes — 4¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 6%)
- Will Donald Trump attend UFC 330?: Yes — 3¢ Kalshi $26K (weight 94%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-09T23:20:49.210Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "7% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trumpufc
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Donald%20Trump%20attend%20UFC%20332
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev