34% — Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Hunter Biden has received a monetary payment from the Anti-Weaponization Fund established by the U.S. Department of Justice on May 18, 2026 before Jan 1, 2027 Leader: Anyone at 34% · Kalshi 34% · 6 contracts · $260 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-05-28 20:35:03 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability reflects market expectations that Hunter Biden will be reported to have received a monetary payment from the Department of Justice's Anti-Weaponization Fund by year-end 2026. The 7% market price suggests traders view this as unlikely compared to other named recipients, with Enrique Tarrio at 27% and the broader "Anyone" category at 30%. The relatively low probability may reflect limited public information about the fund's operations, eligibility criteria, and intended beneficiaries since its May 2026 establishment. Key drivers include whether the DOJ will make payments before 2027, which individuals or groups qualify, and whether such payments would be publicly reported by relevant agencies. Resolution depends on disclosures from source agencies monitoring fund distribution, with the year-end deadline creating a defined window for verification. Key factors: - The Anti-Weaponization Fund was established May 18, 2026, providing only 7.5 months to distribute funds and generate public reporting before the resolution date of January 1, 2027 - Market pricing shows Hunter Biden at 7 cents versus Enrique Tarrio at 27 cents and "Anyone" at 30 cents, suggesting traders view his eligibility or likelihood of receiving payments as lower than other specified individuals - No publicly available information exists yet about fund eligibility criteria, application processes, or preliminary payment decisions as of May 2026 - The contract requires reporting 'by any of the Source Agencies' rather than mere confirmation of payment, adding an additional dependency on disclosure - Zero trading volume on the Hunter Biden contract in the past 24 hours indicates minimal recent market interest or new information flowing into this specific outcome Contracts: - Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that anyone has received a monetary payment from the Anti-Weaponization Fund established by the U.S. Department of Justice on May 18, 2026 before Jan 1, 2027?: Anyone — 34¢ Kalshi $119 (weight 46%) - Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Enrique Tarrio has received a monetary payment from the Anti-Weaponization Fund established by the U.S. Department of Justice on May 18, 2026 before Jan 1, 2027?: Enrique Tarrio — 31¢ Kalshi $20 (weight 8%) - Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Mike Lindell has received a monetary payment from the Anti-Weaponization Fund established by the U.S. Department of Justice on May 18, 2026 before Jan 1, 2027?: Mike Lindell — 20¢ Kalshi $21 (weight 8%) - Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Michael Caputo has received a monetary payment from the Anti-Weaponization Fund established by the U.S. Department of Justice on May 18, 2026 before Jan 1, 2027?: Michael Caputo — 7¢ Kalshi $101 (weight 39%) - Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Hunter Biden has received a monetary payment from the Anti-Weaponization Fund established by the U.S. Department of Justice on May 18, 2026 before Jan 1, 2027?: Hunter Biden — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Kash Patel has received a monetary payment from the Anti-Weaponization Fund established by the U.S. Department of Justice on May 18, 2026 before Jan 1, 2027?: Kash Patel — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:08.619Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "34% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trumpwep Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20it%20be%20reported%20by%20any%20of%20the%20Source%20Agencies%20that%20Hunter%20Biden%20has%20received%20a%20monetary%20payment%20from%20the%20Anti-Weaponization%20Fund%20established%20by%20the%20U.S.%20Department%20of%20Justice%20on%20May%2018%2C%202026%20before%20Jan%201%2C%202027 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev