93% — How many 2026 FIFA World Cup matches will Donald Trump attend this season Leader: At least 1 at 93% · Kalshi 93% · 3 contracts · $7K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-17 15:18:10 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes. Why this matters: Markets are pricing an 85% chance that Donald Trump will attend at least one match during the 2026 FIFA World Cup, which runs from June to July across the United States, Canada, and Mexico. This high probability reflects Trump's documented interest in high-profile sporting events and his frequent public appearances, balanced against the inherent unpredictability of his schedule and whether he will prioritize World Cup attendance over other commitments. The gap between the 85% probability for at least one match and the 45% probability for at least two matches suggests uncertainty about the depth of his involvement. Key catalysts will be his stated intentions regarding World Cup attendance and any formal invitations or public commitments he makes in the months leading up to the tournament. Resolution will occur when the tournament concludes in July 2026, at which point records of his actual attendance will be verifiable through media coverage, official records, or public documentation. Key factors: - Trump's pattern of attending major sporting events (Super Bowls, championship matches, golf tournaments) during comparable time periods - The 2026 World Cup's location in North America, reducing travel friction compared to previous tournaments in Europe or Asia - Public scheduling conflicts or other major commitments that could compete for his time during June-July 2026 - Formal invitations or public statements from Trump or tournament organizers regarding his potential attendance - Media tracking and verification capability—attendance at major televised events is typically documented through photography and official records Contracts: - How many 2026 FIFA World Cup matches will Donald Trump attend this season?: At least 1 — 93¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 63%) - How many 2026 FIFA World Cup matches will Donald Trump attend this season?: At least 2 — 41¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 17%) - How many 2026 FIFA World Cup matches will Donald Trump attend this season?: At least 3 — 15¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 20%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-17T14:20:19.350Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "93% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/trumpworldcup Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=How%20many%202026%20FIFA%20World%20Cup%20matches%20will%20Donald%20Trump%20attend%20this%20season Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev