48% — Will Donald Trump make between 80 and 99 Truth Social posts the week of Apr 19, 2026 Leader: 100-119 at 48% · Kalshi 48% · 3 contracts · $14K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-25 22:53:19 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract predicts whether Donald Trump will post between 80 and 99 times on Truth Social during the week of April 19, 2026. Currently priced at 33%, it reflects traders' assessment that this specific posting volume is less likely than adjacent ranges. Trump's posting frequency has historically varied based on news cycles, campaign activity, and legal developments. The main driver of this probability is the distribution of expected activity across the six available outcome ranges. As April 2026 approaches, actual baseline posting patterns and any major political events will clarify whether this mid-range estimate proves accurate. The contract resolves based on verifiable Truth Social post counts during that specific week. Key factors: - Historical Truth Social posting frequency in comparable weeks with similar news environments - Whether April 2026 coincides with significant campaign, legal, or political announcements that typically increase or decrease posting volume - The concentration of probability mass in the 160-179 range (33%) suggests traders expect substantially higher posting activity than the 80-99 band - Seasonal or pattern-based variations in Trump's posting habits across different weeks in the year - The relatively wide distribution across six outcome bands indicates material uncertainty about the baseline posting rate in April 2026 Contracts: - Will Donald Trump make between 100 and 119 Truth Social posts the week of Jun 28, 2026?: 100-119 — 48¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 26%) - Will Donald Trump make between 120 and 139 Truth Social posts the week of Jun 28, 2026?: 120-139 — 40¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 25%) - Will Donald Trump make between 140 and 159 Truth Social posts the week of Jun 28, 2026?: 140-159 — 4¢ Kalshi $7K (weight 48%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-05T07:20:50.958Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "48% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/truthsocial Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Donald%20Trump%20make%20between%2080%20and%2099%20Truth%20Social%20posts%20the%20week%20of%20Apr%2019%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev