22% — Will the President try to fire the Lisa Cook as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Oct 1, 2026 Leader: Before Jan 1, 2027 at 22% · Kalshi 22% · 3 contracts · $41 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-11 00:15:41 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability represents the likelihood that the sitting President will attempt to remove Lisa Cook from her position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors before January 1, 2027. The 22% probability reflects moderate positioning relative to the higher uncertainty at nearer dates—the market prices only a 12% chance of action before October 1 and 3% before August 1. Market participants appear to be weighing the President's stated criticism of Federal Reserve independence against the procedural and political constraints on removing a sitting Board member. The primary factors driving this level are the President's policy disagreements with current Fed leadership and Cook's voting record, balanced against the significant legal and institutional obstacles to removal. Cook's term runs through 2028, and any removal attempt would face scrutiny. The earliest meaningful catalyst would be executive statements or formal notification of intent before the October deadline. Key factors: - The President has publicly criticized Federal Reserve policy and individual governors' voting records; direct statements or formal removal proposals would be primary signals of intent - Federal Reserve governors serve staggered 14-year terms and can only be removed for 'cause' under statute; a legal determination of cause would be required for any removal - Prior removal attempts or threats against Fed governors are rare historical precedents; the lack of established norm makes this outcome less predictable than routine appointments - Market pricing shows sharp compression across time horizons (3% to 22%), suggesting uncertainty is concentrated in the Oct 2026–Jan 2027 window rather than imminent action - Cook's term extends to 2028 with no scheduled event forcing a resolution before January 2027, meaning markets are pricing speculative executive action rather than calendar-driven events Contracts: - Will the President try to fire the Lisa Cook as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 22¢ Kalshi $41 (weight 100%) - Will the President try to fire the Lisa Cook as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026 — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the President try to fire the Lisa Cook as member of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026 — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-10T23:20:49.153Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "22% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/tryfirecook Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20President%20try%20to%20fire%20the%20Lisa%20Cook%20as%20member%20of%20the%20Board%20of%20Governors%20of%20the%20Federal%20Reserve%20System%20before%20Oct%201%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev