10% — Will the President try to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Jan 1, 2027
Leader: Before Jan 1, 2028 at 10% · Kalshi 10% · 3 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-07 15:31:39 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability estimates the likelihood that the sitting President will attempt to remove the Federal Reserve Chair before January 1, 2027—roughly 5 months away. The low 9% reading reflects both the institutional independence of the Fed and historical precedent against direct presidential attempts to fire its leadership mid-term. The probability would shift based on major economic shocks, persistent conflicts between the President and Chair over policy, or public statements signaling intent to remove the Chair. The most immediate catalyst would be any explicit announcement or formal action by the President targeting the Chair's position before year-end 2026. Contract pricing also reflects uncertainty about what "try to fire" legally entails—whether formal removal proceedings, threats, or pressure campaigns qualify.

Key factors:
- The Federal Reserve Chair has a 14-year term designed to insulate the role from political pressure; no sitting President has successfully removed a Chair mid-term in modern U.S. history
- Economic conditions and inflation trends between now and December 2026 could escalate policy disagreements if Fed decisions diverge sharply from Presidential preferences
- Public or private statements from the President explicitly targeting the Chair's tenure would be a leading indicator that markets could price in real-time
- Legal ambiguity about Presidential removal authority over the Fed Chair—the statute permits removal "for cause" but the definition remains untested in court
- Any major market dislocation, recession signal, or financial stress could increase political pressure on the Fed and the President-Chair relationship

Contracts:
- Will the President try to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Jan 1, 2028?: Before Jan 1, 2028 — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)
- Will the President try to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Jul 1, 2027?: Before Jul 1, 2027 — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)
- Will the President try to fire the Chair of the Federal Reserve before Jan 1, 2027?: Before Jan 1, 2027 — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-07T15:20:49.000Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "10% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/tryfirewarsh
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20President%20try%20to%20fire%20the%20Chair%20of%20the%20Federal%20Reserve%20before%20Jan%201%2C%202027
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev