97% — Will Tesla Inc. report above 440000 total deliveries in Q2 2026
Leader: Above 340000 at 97% · Kalshi 97% · 18 contracts · $21K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-28 04:16:53 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 18 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The market is pricing a 95% chance that Tesla will deliver more than 440,000 vehicles in Q2 2026. This reflects high confidence based on Tesla's recent production capacity and historical delivery trends. The primary drivers are Tesla's global factory output rates—particularly Shanghai and Berlin ramp performance—and whether demand holds steady through the quarter. Key uncertainties include potential supply chain disruptions, pricing pressure from competition, and macroeconomic shifts affecting EV sales. The outcome resolves when Tesla reports official Q2 2026 delivery figures, typically in early July. The tight clustering of related contracts (430k at 43¢, 440k at 40¢, 450k at 27¢) suggests market participants see modest downside risk but significant probability mass around the 430–450k range.

Key factors:
- Tesla's Q1 2026 delivery run rate and whether it sustained or accelerated into Q2
- Current operating capacity utilization at Shanghai, Berlin, Austin, and Fremont factories as of May 2026
- Industry-wide EV demand trends and competitive pricing pressure in major markets during April–June 2026
- Supply chain availability for critical components (batteries, semiconductors) through June 2026
- Tesla's stated production guidance or management commentary on Q2 expectations released during May 2026

Contracts:
- Will Tesla Inc. report above 340000 total deliveries in Q2 2026?: Above 340000 — 97¢ Kalshi $103 (weight 0%)
- Will Tesla Inc. report above 340000 total production in Q2 2026?: Above 340000 — 97¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Tesla Inc. report above 330000 total deliveries in Q2 2026?: Above 330000 — 96¢ Kalshi $18 (weight 0%)
- Will Tesla Inc. report above 360000 total deliveries in Q2 2026?: Above 360000 — 93¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 0%)
- Will Tesla Inc. report above 380000 total deliveries in Q2 2026?: above 380000 — 92¢ Kalshi $40 (weight 0%)
- Will Tesla Inc. report above 400000 total deliveries in Q2 2026?: above 400000 — 84¢ Kalshi $23 (weight 0%)
- Will Tesla Inc. report above 410000 total deliveries in Q2 2026?: Above 410000 — 78¢ Kalshi $637 (weight 3%)
- Will Tesla Inc. report above 420000 total deliveries in Q2 2026?: above 420000 — 76¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 5%)
- ... and 10 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-28T03:20:49.071Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/tsla
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Tesla%20Inc.%20report%20above%20440000%20total%20deliveries%20in%20Q2%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev