61% — Will ServiceTitan, Inc. report Above $28.5 billion gross transaction volume in Q2 2027
Leader: Above $24.7 billion at 61% · Kalshi 61% · 2 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-09-21 12:59:55 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that ServiceTitan will process at least $28.5 billion in gross transaction volume during Q2 2027—roughly nine months from now. The 22% implied probability suggests traders view this upper threshold as achievable but not highly likely. Current pricing across the contract ladder ($0.90 for $26.5B down to $0.22 for $28.5B) indicates confidence in baseline growth but uncertainty about reaching the highest bound. Resolution will depend on ServiceTitan's actual reported GTV for the second quarter of 2027, which the company will disclose in earnings. Key drivers include the company's field-service platform adoption rate, pricing power, and ability to retain and expand its customer base through 2026 and into 2027. Macroeconomic conditions affecting home services and trades spending will also influence outcome probabilities.

Key factors:
- ServiceTitan's historical GTV growth rate and trajectory through 2024-2026 establishes a baseline growth expectation needed to reach $28.5B by Q2 2027
- The contract ladder structure reveals declining conviction at higher thresholds: $26.5B attracts 90¢ pricing while $28.5B attracts only 22¢, indicating incremental growth skepticism above ~$27B
- Q2 2027 earnings release date and actual reported GTV figure will directly settle the contract, with no ambiguity in the underlying metric
- Customer acquisition, retention, and average transaction value trends through late 2026 will be the primary observable signals affecting near-term probability movement
- Broader economic conditions in home services and discretionary trades spending between now and Q2 2027 act as an external variable independent of company execution

Contracts:
- Will ServiceTitan, Inc. report Above $24.7 billion gross transaction volume in Q3 2027?: Above $24.7 billion — 61¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 50%)
- Will ServiceTitan, Inc. report Above $25.1 billion gross transaction volume in Q3 2027?: Above $25.1 billion — 41¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 50%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-09-18T14:20:52.292Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "61% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/ttan
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20ServiceTitan%2C%20Inc.%20report%20Above%20%2428.5%20billion%20gross%20transaction%20volume%20in%20Q2%202027
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev