50% — Who will win the next Turkish presidential election
Leader: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan at 50% · Kalshi 50% · 4 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-11 04:12:41 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 47% probability represents the current market assessment that a specific candidate will win Turkey's next presidential election, based on aggregated trading across multiple contracts. The price reflects uncertainty about the timing and eligibility of Turkey's electoral cycle, as well as domestic political conditions. The main factors supporting this level are the incumbent's historical advantages in Turkish elections and current polling standing. Conversely, economic conditions, coalition dynamics, and opposition momentum could shift expectations downward. The most significant near-term catalyst will be the formal announcement of the election date by Turkey's electoral commission, followed by campaign developments and any shifts in polling data. Market prices also suggest material uncertainty about secondary candidates, with runner-up prices clustering between 11-18 cents, indicating genuine competitive dynamics rather than consensus around any single alternative.

Key factors:
- Turkish electoral law allows presidential contests every five years; the timing of the next election (whether held in 2028 or earlier) directly affects candidate eligibility and incumbent advantage
- Polling data on approval ratings and candidate preference among Turkish voters will shift market prices as new surveys are released
- Economic conditions in Turkey—inflation, currency stability, and growth—historically influence presidential approval and opposition support
- Coalition negotiations and opposition candidate selection will clarify the competitive field; formal endorsements or withdrawals materially affect individual candidate probabilities
- The incumbent's ability to modify electoral rules or extend terms (as precedent allows in Turkish politics) creates structural uncertainty about the baseline scenario

Contracts:
- Who will win the next Turkish presidential election?: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan — 50¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)
- Who will win the next Turkish presidential election?: Ekrem İmamoğlu — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)
- Who will win the next Turkish presidential election?: Ahmet Davutoğlu — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)
- Who will win the next Turkish presidential election?: Mansur Yavaş — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-11T03:20:49.890Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "50% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/turkeypres
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20the%20next%20Turkish%20presidential%20election
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev