39% — Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff: 0.6–0.9M
Leader: 1.2–1.5M at 39% · Polymarket 39% · 5 contracts · $35 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 04:22:16 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract asks whether total votes in the 2026 Texas Republican Senate primary runoff will fall between 600,000 and 900,000. At 7% probability, the market is pricing this outcome as unlikely. Texas primary runoff turnout depends on candidate enthusiasm and whether the race remains competitive through election day. The margin-of-victory contracts show active pricing around Paxton's performance, suggesting ongoing uncertainty about the race's competitiveness. The key driver is whether turnout matches or exceeds typical runoff participation rates in statewide Texas Republican primaries. The resolution will occur on the scheduled runoff election date when official vote totals are reported by the Texas Secretary of State.

Key factors:
- Historical Texas Republican runoff turnout rates and how 2026 compares to prior cycles like 2012, 2016, and 2022
- Candidate spending and ground-game intensity heading into the runoff, which directly affects voter mobilization
- Weather and external events on election day that could suppress or boost participation
- Polling showing the margin of victory, since competitive close races typically drive higher turnout than blowouts
- Early voting participation rates reported in the weeks before the runoff election

Contracts:
- Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff: 1.2–1.5M — 39¢ Polymarket $25 (weight 71%)
- Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff: 0.9–1.2M — 34¢ Polymarket $10 (weight 29%)
- Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff: 1.5–1.8M — 25¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff: 0.6–0.9M — 17¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Turnout in Texas Senate Republican Primary Runoff: <0.6M — 5¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)

Cite as: "39% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/turnout-texas-senate-republican-primary-runoff-0609m
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Turnout%20in%20Texas%20Senate%20Republican%20Primary%20Runoff%3A%200.6%E2%80%930.9M
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev