49% — Tuyo FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $500M
Leader: $150M at 49% · Polymarket 49% · 11 contracts · $377 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 03:16:40 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 11 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 44% probability that Tuyo will achieve a fully diluted valuation (FDV) above $500M within one day of its launch. The probability reflects uncertainty about initial market demand and investor appetite for the project. Key drivers include the size of the token allocation available at launch, comparable valuations of recent similar projects, and early investor commitments. The primary resolution event is Tuyo's official launch date, when FDV becomes calculable from trading activity and market prices. Current market odds suggest participants view a $500M valuation as somewhat more likely than not to be missed initially, with lower price thresholds ($50M-$100M) showing higher probabilities and higher thresholds ($1B-$1.5B) showing correspondingly lower ones.

Key factors:
- Market cap calculation on day one depends on circulating supply at launch and opening trading prices across exchanges
- Comparable recent token launches show high variance in initial FDV outcomes, from $100M to $5B+, making prediction difficult
- Contractual terms—vesting schedules, allocation sizes, and lockup periods—directly determine how much supply reaches market on day one
- Initial exchange listings (CEX vs. DEX, geographic reach, trading pairs) affect price discovery and FDV estimation methods
- Pre-launch investor commitments and announced allocations provide floor estimates but do not guarantee actual day-one trading volumes or prices

Contracts:
- Tuyo FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $150M — 49¢ Polymarket $35 (weight 9%)
- Tuyo FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $100M — 40¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Tuyo FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $20M — 40¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- Tuyo FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $300M — 35¢ Polymarket $30 (weight 8%)
- Tuyo FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $50M — 34¢ Polymarket $54 (weight 14%)
- Tuyo FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $80M — 26¢ Polymarket $9 (weight 3%)
- Tuyo FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $800M — 22¢ Polymarket $155 (weight 41%)
- Tuyo FDV above ___ one day after launch?: $700M — 14¢ Polymarket $47 (weight 12%)
- ... and 3 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T02:20:08.251Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "49% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/tuyo-fdv-above-one-day-after-launch
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Tuyo%20FDV%20above%20___%20one%20day%20after%20launch%3F%3A%20%24500M
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev