25% — Will Euphoria Season 3 have above 2600000 Total Season Views on Luminate during April 24 - April 30, 2026 Kalshi 25% · 5 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-26 09:42:36 UTC Why this matters: This contract predicts whether HBO's Euphoria Season 3 will accumulate more than 2.6 million total season views on Luminate during the week of April 24-30, 2026. The 28% probability reflects uncertainty about the show's viewership performance in a specific measurement window. Key drivers include the show's historical viewership trends, the timing of Season 3's release relative to this week, and competition from other content during that period. The resolution depends entirely on Luminate's official viewership data for that week, which typically becomes available in early May 2026. Analysts weighing this contract should consider whether Season 3 premiered before or during that week, the show's typical weekly audience size based on previous seasons, and whether 2.6 million views represents an average or above-average performance. Key factors: - Euphoria Season 3 premiere date relative to April 24-30, 2026—whether it aired during this window or earlier - Historical weekly viewership patterns for Euphoria Seasons 1-2 on Luminate to establish baseline performance expectations - Competitive landscape during April 24-30, 2026—other major content releases that could fragment viewership - Whether 2.6 million views represents typical weekly performance or requires above-average audience engagement - Luminate's measurement methodology and reporting lag time for final season view counts Contracts: - How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?: Above 160 — 23¢ Kalshi $402 (weight 36%) - Will Los Angeles D have the best record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season?: Los Angeles D — 58¢ Kalshi $373 (weight 33%) - Will the number of unemployment rate exceeds 10% (monthly BLS); S&P 500 declines more than 30% from its closing level on Issuance; Zillow Home Value Index declines more than 10% YoY in any of: NYC, LA, San Francisco, Chicago, Houston, Phoenix; labor share of gross domestic income (GDI) first-release value for any quarter falls below 50%; CPI-U (All items, not seasonally-adjusted) YoY falls below 0% in any monthly release during before July 2028 be above 2?: Yes — 25¢ Kalshi $341 (weight 30%) - Will Atlanta have the best record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season?: Atlanta — 14¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 0%) - Will New York Y have the best record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season?: New York Y — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-26T09:20:50.969Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "25% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/tvshow Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Euphoria%20Season%203%20have%20above%202600000%20Total%20Season%20Views%20on%20Luminate%20during%20April%2024%20-%20April%2030%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev