20% — Which shows will be cancelled this year
Kalshi 20% · 6 contracts · $24 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:21:56 UTC

Why this matters:
The 24% probability reflects market expectations that "Late Night with Seth Meyers" will be cancelled during 2026, based on current contract pricing across Kalshi. This represents a roughly one-in-four chance according to traders. The probability is driven primarily by NBC's programming decisions and the show's viewership metrics relative to network priorities. Secondary factors include broader late-night industry consolidation and advertiser demand for the time slot. The main catalyst for resolution will be NBC's official renewal or cancellation announcement, typically occurring during upfront season (May-June) when networks finalize fall schedules. Current trading volume is light ($10 in 24-hour volume), suggesting limited consensus conviction among traders monitoring this outcome.

Key factors:
- NBC's May-June 2026 upfront presentation will likely include explicit renewal or cancellation decisions for fall programming
- Recent late-night ratings trends and advertiser demand for the 11:35pm slot will influence network cost-benefit analysis
- Seth Meyers' contract renewal status and negotiation outcomes directly determine whether the show can continue
- Competitive pressure from other networks' late-night offerings and streaming alternatives affects traditional broadcast renewals
- Historical precedent shows NBC has cancelled late-night shows before (e.g., "Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon" is not cancelled, but the show type has been discontinued at other networks)

Contracts:
- Will Jimmy Kimmel Live! be canceled?: Jimmy Kimmel Live! — 25¢ Kalshi $18 (weight 73%)
- Which shows will be cancelled this year?: The View — 23¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 27%)
- Which shows will be cancelled this year?: South Park — 14¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Which shows will be cancelled this year?: The Daily Show — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Which shows will be cancelled this year?: Late Night With Seth Meyers — 25¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Which shows will be cancelled this year?: The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon — 18¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

Cite as: "20% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/tvshowscancelled
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Which%20shows%20will%20be%20cancelled%20this%20year
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev