10% — Which shows will be cancelled this year
Kalshi 10% · 6 contracts · $33 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 09:43:05 UTC

Why this matters:
The 24% probability reflects market expectations that "Late Night with Seth Meyers" will be cancelled during 2026, based on current contract pricing across Kalshi. This represents a roughly one-in-four chance according to traders. The probability is driven primarily by NBC's programming decisions and the show's viewership metrics relative to network priorities. Secondary factors include broader late-night industry consolidation and advertiser demand for the time slot. The main catalyst for resolution will be NBC's official renewal or cancellation announcement, typically occurring during upfront season (May-June) when networks finalize fall schedules. Current trading volume is light ($10 in 24-hour volume), suggesting limited consensus conviction among traders monitoring this outcome.

Key factors:
- NBC's May-June 2026 upfront presentation will likely include explicit renewal or cancellation decisions for fall programming
- Recent late-night ratings trends and advertiser demand for the 11:35pm slot will influence network cost-benefit analysis
- Seth Meyers' contract renewal status and negotiation outcomes directly determine whether the show can continue
- Competitive pressure from other networks' late-night offerings and streaming alternatives affects traditional broadcast renewals
- Historical precedent shows NBC has cancelled late-night shows before (e.g., "Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon" is not cancelled, but the show type has been discontinued at other networks)

Contracts:
- Will Jimmy Kimmel Live! be canceled?: Jimmy Kimmel Live! — 12¢ Kalshi $28 (weight 84%)
- Which shows will be cancelled this year?: Late Night With Seth Meyers — 16¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 16%)
- Which shows will be cancelled this year?: The Daily Show — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Which shows will be cancelled this year?: South Park — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Which shows will be cancelled this year?: The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Fallon — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Which shows will be cancelled this year?: The View — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T09:20:49.656Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "10% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/tvshowscancelled
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Which%20shows%20will%20be%20cancelled%20this%20year
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev