85% — TX-30 Republican Primary Winner
Leader: Everett Jackson at 85% · Polymarket 85% · 2 contracts · $474 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 08:44:58 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The current 86% probability indicates markets assess a specific candidate as heavily favored to win the TX-30 Republican primary, with roughly one-in-seven odds assigned to the runner-up. This level reflects available polling data, candidate funding, endorsements, and organizational strength in the district. The probability could shift based on new survey releases, campaign developments such as endorsements from major figures, or media events affecting candidate viability. The primary election itself—scheduled for the date of Texas's next general election cycle—serves as the ultimate resolution point. Between now and voting, shifts in fundraising reports (which become public on predictable schedules) and any debate performances or scandals would likely move markets, though the wide gap suggests the leading candidate faces a high bar to lose.

Key factors:
- Recent internal or public polling showing the leader's margin in TX-30 compared to the runner-up
- Candidate cash-on-hand and fundraising trajectory relative to competitors
- Endorsements from Texas Republican establishment figures or national political actors
- Any notable gaffes, scandals, or media coverage affecting candidate perception in the district
- Voter turnout expectations and demographic composition of likely primary voters

Contracts:
- TX-30 Republican Primary Winner: Everett Jackson — 85¢ Polymarket $46 (weight 10%)
- TX-30 Republican Primary Winner: Sholdon Daniels — 13¢ Polymarket $428 (weight 90%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T07:20:12.845Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "85% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/tx30-republican-primary-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=TX-30%20Republican%20Primary%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev