3% — TX-38 Republican Primary Winner
Polymarket 3% · 1 contracts · $49 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 08:44:58 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the likelihood that a specific candidate wins the Republican primary for Texas's 38th Congressional District. The 95% price suggests a heavily favored frontrunner with substantial structural advantages or polling leads, while the 5% allocated to alternatives indicates some residual uncertainty. Primary probabilities of this magnitude typically reflect either frontrunner advantages from fundraising, endorsements, or polling, balanced against the inherent unpredictability of primary turnout and late-breaking campaign events. The primary election itself—scheduled for a date voters can verify through Texas election records—serves as the hard resolution point. Between now and voting day, shifts in this probability would likely track candidate spending data, field poll releases, endorsement announcements, or turnout indicators specific to the district.

Key factors:
- Current polling or publicly available vote intention data in TX-38, which would need to substantially shift to justify significant probability movements
- Fundraising and cash-on-hand disparities between the frontrunner and alternatives, as measurable through FEC filings
- Local or district-specific endorsements from party establishment figures, which historically correlate with primary performance
- Voter turnout expectations for the specific primary date, since low-turnout scenarios can increase uncertainty around frontrunner performance
- Any disqualifying events affecting the frontrunner's candidacy or viability between the current date and election day

Contracts:
- TX-38 Republican Primary Winner: Barrett McNabb — 3¢ Polymarket $49 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T07:20:12.845Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "3% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/tx38-republican-primary-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=TX-38%20Republican%20Primary%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev