26% — Will Democrats win exactly 8 seats in 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Texas Leader: 10 at 26% · Kalshi 26% · 8 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-24 02:07:25 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract reflects a 26% probability that Democrats will win exactly 8 seats in Texas's 2026 House elections. Texas has 36 House seats total, and Democrats' performance depends heavily on turnout dynamics, suburban district competitiveness, and national political environment. The probability is relatively modest because Democrats capturing exactly 8 seats represents a narrow outcome—they could win fewer seats in a GOP wave or more seats in a favorable environment. The 2026 midterm election on November 5, 2026, will resolve this contract. Current factors include redistricting impacts from 2022, the performance of specific suburban districts (particularly around Houston, Dallas, and Austin), and whether Democrats can maintain 2022 gains. Key factors: - Texas had 13 Democratic House members elected in 2022; winning exactly 8 would represent a significant loss from that baseline - Suburban districts in major metros (Harris County, Tarrant County, Dallas County) show swing dynamics that determine whether Democrats stay above or fall below 8 seats - National midterm environment in 2026 will affect turnout and candidate recruitment, with historical patterns showing midterms typically favor the party opposing the sitting president - Redistricting and demographic changes since 2022 altered district competitiveness; some previously lean-R districts may have become more competitive - Early special election results and 2024 presidential performance in Texas House districts will provide indicators of the electoral environment heading into November 2026 Contracts: - Will Democrats win exactly 10 seats in 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Texas?: 10 — 26¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) - Will Democrats win exactly 12 seats in 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Texas?: 12 — 17¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) - Will Democrats win exactly 11 seats in 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Texas?: 11 — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) - Will Democrats win exactly 9 seats in 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Texas?: 9 — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) - Will Democrats win exactly 13 seats in 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Texas?: 13 — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) - Will Democrats win at least 14 seats in 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Texas?: 14 and above — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) - Will Democrats win below 8 seats in 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Texas?: Below 8 — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) - Will Democrats win exactly 8 seats in 2026 U.S. House of Representatives elections in Texas?: 8 — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 13%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-24T01:20:52.160Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "26% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/txhousedemseats Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Democrats%20win%20exactly%208%20seats%20in%202026%20U.S.%20House%20of%20Representatives%20elections%20in%20Texas Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev