6% — Will Richard Davis be the Democratic nominee for TX-14
Kalshi 6% · 1 contracts · $0 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-15 22:16:17 UTC

Why this matters:
This represents the implied probability that Richard Davis will secure the Democratic nomination for Texas's 14th congressional district. At 41%, the market suggests roughly even odds, reflecting uncertainty about the primary's outcome. The probability is likely driven by Davis's existing profile and campaign infrastructure relative to potential challengers, as well as district demographics and recent electoral trends. The nomination will be determined by primary results, expected to occur during Texas's primary election cycle. Key factors that could move this probability include changes in candidate fundraising, endorsements from party figures, polling shifts, and challenger entry or exit from the race. Local turnout patterns and any shifts in district composition would also influence the final outcome.

Key factors:
- Primary election results and timing will directly determine the nomination, with participation rates and vote distribution among competing candidates being measurable factors
- Candidate fundraising totals and cash-on-hand relative to primary opponents indicate organizational capacity and will be publicly disclosed
- Endorsements from established Democratic figures, local elected officials, and organizations in TX-14 demonstrably affect primary electability
- Recent polling data comparing Davis to other potential Democratic primary candidates would show relative standing among likely voters
- Registered Democrat growth or demographic shifts within TX-14 between now and the primary could alter the electorate composition and candidate viability

Contracts:
- Will Richard Davis be the Democratic nominee for TX-14?: Richard Davis — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-12T19:20:51.366Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "6% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/txprimary
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Richard%20Davis%20be%20the%20Democratic%20nominee%20for%20TX-14
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev