61% — Will the average daily minimum temperature in Texas (DFW & IAH) fall below 20°F for at least 2 days within a 4-day span before Jan 1, 2027 Leader: Before 2029 at 61% · Kalshi 61% · 3 contracts · $2 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-13 16:50:28 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract measures the likelihood that Dallas-Fort Worth or Houston airports will experience at least 2 days with average minimum temperatures below 20°F within a consecutive 4-day window before the end of 2026—approximately 5 months away. The 4% probability reflects the rarity of such extreme cold in South Texas during late summer through fall. The market is pricing in that sustained sub-20°F conditions are unlikely during this timeframe, particularly given historical patterns where freezes typically occur in December or January. The main upside catalyst would be an unusually early onset of Arctic air masses, while normal seasonal warming through autumn would reinforce the low probability. Contract resolution depends entirely on verified minimum temperature readings from official weather stations serving both metros. Key factors: - Historical freeze frequency: sub-20°F minimums at DFW/IAH occur fewer than 2-3 times annually, almost entirely December-February - Seasonal timing: ~68% of the remaining contract period (August-November) typically experiences above-freezing minimum temperatures in Texas - Arctic air pattern persistence: achieving sub-20°F temperatures on 2 of any 4 consecutive days requires sustained Arctic outbreak, which typically lasts 3-5 days when it occurs - Current atmospheric setup: no climate models or seasonal forecasts project anomalous early-winter conditions for autumn 2026 - Historical base rate: the probability of any randomly-selected 4-day window in an 8-month period hitting this threshold is empirically very low based on 30+ years of temperature records Contracts: - Will the average daily minimum temperature in Texas (DFW & IAH) fall below 20°F for at least 2 days within a 4-day span before Jan 1, 2029?: Before 2029 — 61¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the average daily minimum temperature in Texas (DFW & IAH) fall below 20°F for at least 2 days within a 4-day span before Jan 1, 2028?: Before 2028 — 36¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 100%) - Will the average daily minimum temperature in Texas (DFW & IAH) fall below 20°F for at least 2 days within a 4-day span before Jan 1, 2027?: Before 2027 — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-13T16:20:50.444Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "61% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/txuri Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20average%20daily%20minimum%20temperature%20in%20Texas%20(DFW%20%26%20IAH)%20fall%20below%2020%C2%B0F%20for%20at%20least%202%20days%20within%20a%204-day%20span%20before%20Jan%201%2C%202027 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev