92% — Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in April
Leader: Above 3.7% at 92% · Kalshi 92% · 17 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-24 07:35:30 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 17 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract estimates a 97% probability that the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) will exceed 4.0% when April 2026 data is released. The current assessment reflects labor market softening observed in recent months, with traders pricing in persistent weakness above this threshold. The probability is driven primarily by recent employment trends and Fed policy trajectory; it could shift downward if job growth accelerates unexpectedly or upward if layoffs intensify. The resolution hinges on the Bureau of Labor Statistics' official April 2026 unemployment report, typically released in early May 2026, which reports the exact U-3 rate for that month. Market pricing suggests traders view a sub-4.0% rate as unlikely given current economic conditions, though the 29¢ contract on unemployment above 4.3% indicates some hedging against more severe labor market deterioration.

Key factors:
- April 2026 official U-3 unemployment rate from BLS will determine settlement; currently must exceed 4.0% to resolve YES
- Recent U.S. labor market data through early 2026 shows job growth moderation and initial jobless claims trends
- Federal Reserve policy stance and interest rate expectations influence employer hiring decisions and layoff rates
- Related contract pricing suggests 29% probability of unemployment exceeding 4.3%, indicating market uncertainty about severity level
- Seasonal adjustments and methodological consistency in BLS reporting methodology will apply to final data release

Contracts:
- Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.7% in November?: Above 3.7% — 92¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.7% in October?: Above 3.7% — 92¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.8% in November?: Above 3.8% — 90¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in June?: Above 4.1% — 89¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 0%)
- Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 3.9% in November?: Above 3.9% — 81¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.0% in November?: Above 4.0% — 73¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.1% in November?: Above 4.1% — 66¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the unemployment rate (U-3) be above 4.2% in June?: Above 4.2% — 59¢ Kalshi $595 (weight 35%)
- ... and 9 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-24T07:20:50.196Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "92% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/u3
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20unemployment%20rate%20(U-3)%20be%20above%204.0%25%20in%20April
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev